2023 - Round 27 Results - All of Your Favourites Again
/After scares of varying magnitudes, both favourites prevailed this week, knocking 5th and 7th out of the competition in Week 3 of the Finals, a fate that teams from 5th have only suffered three times, and teams from 7th only once, in the last 24 seasons, as you can see in the table at right.
Those results cost MoSHPlay_Marg as share of the lead, and allowed MoSHBODS_Marg and RSMP_Simple to take joint leadership on 147 from 215 (68%).
The all-Tipster average for the round was 1.8 from 2, which took the all-season figure to 141 from 215 (66%).
Margin prediction was very strong this week, with mean absolute errors (MAEs) ranging only from 6.3 to 11.1 points per game.
Best, narrowly, was Bookie_9’s 6.3 points per game, and worst was MoSSBODS_Marg’s 11.1 points per game.
(One of the things I’ve not pointed out this season is how well some of the Margin Predictors would have done on Line Betting this season, including the MoS trio who’ve all tipped at over 57%)
MoSHPlay_Marg is now uncatchable at the top of the Leaderboard and seems likely to win by about 15 goals. MoSHBODS_Marg will most likely finish 5th, but could climb or drop a spot, and MoSSBODS_Marg will likely finish 7th, but could drop to 8th.
There was no movement on the Leaderboard this week, however.
Log probability scores were all positive this week, but best for Bookie_LPSO and worst for MoSHPlay_Prob. MoSHPlay_Prob nonetheless retained 1st place, and MoSSBODS_Prob and Bookie_OE held onto 2nd and 3rd places. MoSHBODS_Prob dropped to 6th..
WAGERING
A late Carlton goal spoiled what would have otherwise been the perfect round for Investors, and instead turned the round into a mere breakeven effort.
In the end, the Combined Portfolio remained steady, and is up by 20.6c on the season, that from an 18% ROT on a 1.13 turn.
