2023 - Round 26 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins have similar views to the bookmakers’ about the Power v Giants game, but very different views about the Dees v Blues game, which they see as producing only 139 points. That’s about three goals less than the bookmaker view.

WAGERS

Investors have one unders wager this week.

The estimated overlays for that wager is just under three goals.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were split evenly this week between MoSHBODS and the TAB.

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: TAB

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (7 incl 4 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5 incl 4 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (7) / TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5)

  • Game Totals: TAB (8.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (8) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last week. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 42 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 67 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 14 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 34 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 14 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 39 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 35 points ahead of the TAB and 49 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had only one wager last week, a losing unders bet with Sportsbet.

It ended still at 20 and 18 with the TAB, and at 22 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 43 and 35 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 59% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 2 from 4 against both bookmakers and MoSHBODS landed 1 from 4 against the TAB and 2 from 4 against Sportsbet.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 110 from 211 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 108 from 211 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 109 from 211 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 110 from 211 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes.

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.