2023 - Round 28 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins fancy that the Grand Final will be lower scoring than do the bookmakers, and by as much as 2 goals.

WAGERS

As a result Investors have a final unders wager for the season with an estimated overlay of about two goals.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were spread amongst the MoS twins and the TAB this week.

  • Game Margins: TAB

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (8.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS (8) / MoSHBODS (7) / TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS (8) / TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (10) / TAB (8.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last weekand the leads across all four metrics as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 72 points ahead of MoSHBODS and Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 16 points ahead of Sportsbet and MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 26 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 48 points ahead of the TAB and 55 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had no wagers last week and so stayed at 21 and 18 with the TAB, and 22 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 43 and 31 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 60% win rate on unders.

Across the two games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both landed 2 from 2 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 113 from 215 (53%) record against the TAB, and a 111 from 215 (52% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 112 from 215 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 113 from 215 (53%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes. Note that, again this week, I’ve included “Best Available” columns, which record the performance that would have been achieved had the better of the TAB or Sportsbet offers been chosen (and categorising each game based on what bucket that best offer would have landed in)

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.