2023 - Round 27 : Overs/Unders

/

The MoS twins have quite similar views to the bookmakers’ about the likely Totals in each game, even though they disagree quite significantly about the shares of those Totals that each team will secure.

WAGERS

As a result of the high levels of agreement, Investors have no wagers this week.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were again split evenly this week between MoSSBODS, the TAB, and Sportsbet.

  • Game Margins: TAB and Sportsbet (tied)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The season-long round win tallies are now

  • Game Margins: TAB (7.5 incl 5 ties) / MoSSBODS (7) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 5 ties)

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS (7) / MoSSBODS (7) / TAB (6.5 incl 1 tie) / Sportsbet (5.5 incl 1 tie)

  • Away Team Scores: TAB (7.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (7) / Sportsbet (6.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSSBODS (5)

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS (9) / TAB (8.5 incl 1 tie) / MoSHBODS (6) / Sportsbet (2.5 incl 1 tie)

The round results left all four titles in the same hands as last week. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: TAB 66 points ahead of MoSHBODS, and 71 points ahead of Sportsbet

Home Team Scores: TAB 16 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 18 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSSBODS 11 points ahead of MoSHBODS and 22 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: MoSSBODS 43 points ahead of the TAB and 52 points ahead of MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS had only one wager last week, a winning unders bet with TAB.

That moved it to 21 and 18 with the TAB, and left it at 22 and 13 with Sportsbet, for an overall 43 and 31 record, comprising a 50% win rate on overs and a 60% win rate on unders.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS both landed 1 from 2 against both bookmakers.

That moved MoSSBODS to a 111 from 213 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 109 from 213 (51% ) record against Sportsbet, and moved MoSHBODS to a 110 from 213 (52%) record against the TAB, and a 111 from 212 (52%) record against Sportsbet.

ACCURACY by estimated overlay

Here’s an update on the relationship between estimated overlays and outcomes. Note that, this week, I’ve included “Best Available” columns, which record the performance that would have been achieved had the better of the TAB or Sportsbet offers been chosen (and categorising each game based on what bucket that best offer would have landed in)

For background and information about how to read this chart, see this blog.