2023 - Round 27 : MoS Gets Bold

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This round sees 1st play 7th for the first time in Finals history since 2000, and 2nd play 5th for only the fourth time.

At present, the bookmakers have the Pies as about 11-point favourites, and the Lions as about 20-point favourites.

The MoS twins - and MoSHBODS in particular - have somewhat different views, as we’ll see whe we review this weeks’ tips …

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s a lone contrarian head-to-head tip this week, and it belongs to MoSSBODS, whose almost season-long disdain for the Pies has carried through to their Preliminary Final against the Giants.

With MoSHBODS_Marg tipping both favourites, depending on what MoSHPlay ends up doing, we’ll have either a two-way or three-way tie for the lead on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard come the end of the weekend.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve forecast ranges of only 2 and 3 points in the two games if we exclude the MoS twins, but these expand to 15 and 17 points if we incllude them.

The Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, similarly, move from ranges of 2 and 3% points to 11 and 14% points when you include the MoS twins.

So, the big movers this week, one way or the other, will be the MoS twins and, in all likelihood, MoSHPlay as well.


WAGERS

MoS disagreements with bookmakers almost inevitably results in wagers, and that has certainly been the outcome this week.

The only thing that stopped Investors having all four possible bets is the Head-to-Head Fund’s prohibition on away team wagers.

(I have been tracking the impact of this rule this season and it turns out that wagering on away teams using the same staking strategy as used for home teams would have produced a +7% ROI, so there’s some merit in revising this rule during the off season)

What we have then is a sole head-to-head bet at just over 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and two line bets at just under 4.5% of the original Line Fund.

We therefore have:

Collingwood v GWS

  • GWS win, draw or loss by under 12 points: 65% x 1.8% x 0.9 = +1.1c

  • Otherwise: -65% x 1.8% = -1.2c

Brisbane Lions v Carlton

  • Brisbane Lions win by 20 points or more: 30% x 5.4% x 0.37 + 65% x 2.6% x 0.9 = +2.1c

  • Brisbane Lions win by 1 to 19 points: 30% x 5.4% x 0.37 - 65% x 2.6% = -1.1c

  • Brisbane Draw: 30% x 5.4% x (1.37/2 - 1) - 65% x 2.6% = -2.2c

  • Brisbane Lose: -30% x 5.4% - 65% x 2.6% = -3.3c

So, there’s a maximum gain of 3.2c on the round and a maximum loss of 4.5c. That’s quite a swing for the Preliminary Finals week.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.