We’ve eight-ninths of a full meal this coming weekend and three of those eight games are currently forecasted to be settled by about a goal or less. Three more have lines between 16.5 and 20.5, leaving just the Power v Tigers, and Lions v Eagles games as potential blowouts.
Let’s see what the models make of the eight this week.
Read MoreTipping winners wasn’t all that hard this week, with eight of the nine early week favourites taking the points. The moderate levels of contrarianism meant that no Tipster did better than eight, but none also did worse than six.
MoSHPlay_Marg was one of the four Tipsters scoring eight from nine and now leads Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins by a single tip.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at GWS by 5 points.
MoSHPlay’s opinions about the Friday and Saturday games hasn’t changed, but it’s made some slight alterations to its thinking about the Sunday games with the emergencies now named.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the remainder of Round 1.
It seems that MoSHPlay might not stray too far from MoSHBODS this season.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about Thursday night’s game.
It has the Blues winning by 5 points more than does MoSHBODS.
There’s certainly some divergence of opinion at the level of the individual game about the likely total score it will produce but, overall, only a couple of points difference in the all-game averages for the four forecasters.
One particularly interesting feature for me is how different are the MoS twins’ forecasts in a number of games, bearing in mind that, this season, MoSSBODS has been optimised to predict Game Totals and MoSHBODS to predict Game Margins.
Read MoreThis week we move from less than a half of a half of a round to a full round of nine games, and we get to see just how differently the models and the bookmakers are viewing the 18 teams at this point in the season.
Those bookmakers see seven of the nine games this week as being won by under three goals, an eighth game being won by just under three-and-a-half goals, and only a single game being won by just over eight goals. The nine-game average is just 15.3 points per game.
The MoS models have very different views about two of the games. Let’s take a look at which.
Read MoreA sample of two is no basis on which to make projections, but on a scale from terrible to terrific (both of which etymologically derive from terrere in Latin, meaning frighten) this week’s results were somewhere closer to the latter.
MoSHPlay_Marg was the only Head-to-Head Predictor to tip both winners, while the remaining Predictors tipped only one.
Read MoreHere are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the two games in Round 0.
It’s flipped on MoSHBODS in the Swans’ game, but supported its now market-opposite view on the Giants.
There’s not a lot to talk about in the Overs/Unders space this week with just the two games now scheduled and limited disagreement amongst the forecasters on the likely Totals in both.
Read MoreAs we all watch on and hope that Cyclone Alfred, like the good butler that is its namesake, makes itself similarly scarce and unobtrusive, many football forecasters are presented with the challenge of deciding what, if any, adjustments to make to their forecasts to cater for the possibility that the games in Brisbane and the Gold Coast go ahead but are severely rain-affected.
The bookmakers, of course, are some who face this challenge, but appear to be currently framing markets assuming very much the best. Those markets have the two Queensland teams as about 2 goal favourites, Sydney as narrow favourites, and the Giants v Pies game as a pick ‘em.
The MoS models, weather-blind as they are, are also forecasting as if nothing with happen.
Read MoreFor those purely interested in MoS forecasts, 2025 will look a lot like 2024, although there will have been non-trivial changes under the hood for the underlying algorithms that provide those forecasts. For those also - or instead - interested in the wagering, the differences will be a bit more substantial.
There will, once again, be weekly posts predicting results for the round ahead, reviewing the results of the round just gone, updating Team Ratings and the Team Dashboard, and projecting the remainder of the home and away season and the Finals. There might even be a few posts looking at specific issues (clients willing).
Read MoreThe Brisbane Lions did just enough to convince MoSSBODS to install them as the final top team for the season, but not quite enough to have MoSHBODS afford them the same honour. Sydney, in contrast, dropped three places to 9th on MoSSBODS, and two places to 9th on MoSHBODS.
Altogether, MoSSBODS reranked six teams and MoSHBODS reranked five teams on the basis of the single, Grand Final result.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 15th finish separated by less than 11 Scoring Shots (which is about 40 points), and on MoSHBODS 1st and 12th are separated by just under 31 points.
Read MoreThe Brisbane Lions’ victory over Sydney left minor premiers with a 9 and 9 record in Grand Finals since 2000. The only ladder positions with a better than 50% win rate in Grand Finals are now 2nd, 3rd, and 7th, as you can see in the table at right.
Overall, teams from 1st or 2nd now have a 52% record in Grand Finals, teams from 3rd or 4th a 47% record, and teams from 5th to 8th a 67% record.
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at the Lions by 8 points.
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts about the Grand Final.
The MoS twins have the Grand Final producing about a goal more than do the Bookmakers.
Read MoreOne of a number of robust discussions I’ve had in the past on Twitter has been about what results constitute “upsets” in sport.
My contention - contentious for some - is that any underdog victory is an upset. You can then add a suitable adjective to convey the magnitude of surprise attached to the upset - hence the term “huge upset”, whose very existence suggests that others have recognised not all upsets are alike.
This week sees Sydney take on Brisbane Lions with Sydney opening as a one goal favourite and since shortening to about half that. Would their defeat be considered an upset? I’d say yes.
Read MoreThe only moves on MoSSBODS this week involved Brisbane Lions climbing above Western Bulldogs, and Port Adelaide falling below Collingwood and Sydney. It means that, as far as MoSSBODS is concerned, the remaining two teams in the competition are ranked 2nd and 6th.
MoSHBODS reranked only two teams, dropping Port Adelaide below Collingwood. So, for MoSHBODS the remaining two teams in the competition are ranked 3rd and 7th.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 22 points.
MoSHBODS reranked seven teams across three separate transactions, swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Cats, and the Power into 5th ahead of the Pies, as well as dropping GWS to 11th, allowing Fremantle, St Kilda, and Carlton to each rise one spot.
At the end of it all, the MoS twins agree about the ranking of the Top 8 and Bottom 3 teams, and disagree by a single spot about the ranking of just four teams.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 20 points.
Read MoreIt was yet another round with a fifty percent record for home teams as 1st defeated 2nd to improve their winning percentage in such Preliminary Final clashes to 89%, and 5th defeated 3rd to start that pairing off in the best possible way for the team without the double chance.
Overall, teams from 1st or 2nd now have a 65% record in Preliminary Finals, teams from 3rd or 4th a 38% record, and those from 5th or 6th a 30% record.
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the Preliminary Finals
The MoS twins have similar Totals forecasts tothe bookmakers in the Swans v Power clash, but considerably higher forecasts in the Cats v Lions contest.
Read MoreThis week sees a regular Preliminary Final matchup in 1st playing 2nd alongside a first-time matchup (since 2000) in 3rd playing 5th.
First has a 70% win rate over second, but also a superior record against all-comers (71% v 57% for second).
Fifth has appeared only four times in a Preliminary Final, and then only against second where its record is 1 and 3. Third has fared excellently against fourth but is at just less than parity with first. Overall it has a 63% win rate in Preliminary Finals.
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