2025 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders

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There’s certainly some divergence of opinion at the level of the individual game about the likely total score it will produce but, overall, only a couple of points difference in the all-game averages for the four forecasters.

One particularly interesting feature for me is how different are the MoS twins’ forecasts in a number of games, bearing in mind that, this season, MoSSBODS has been optimised to predict Game Totals and MoSHBODS to predict Game Margins.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are as follows:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne

  • MoSHBODS: Sydney v Brisbane Lions

  • Bookmakers: Richmond v Carlton (Sportsbet also Sydney v Brisbane Lions)

Lowest Scoring Game

  • All: Adelaide v St Kilda

Highest Scoring Team

  • MoS twins: Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: Carlton

Lowest Scoring Team

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

WAGERS

The requirement of a minimum 10% estimated edge has again constrained activity this week, but has at least allow one game through the vice.

The estimated overlay in that one game is just over 10 points, and the wager size is 4.1% accordingly.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was a good one for the MoS twins, albeit slightly better for MoSHBODS than MoSSBODS as it took overall honours for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores, leaving MoSSBODS to do best at what it’s trained for: Game Totals.

The leads are narrow and as follows:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS 10 points ahead of the TAB, and 11 points ahead of Sportsbet and MoSSBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of the TAB, 5 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 6 points ahead of MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 5 points ahead of the TAB and MoSSBODS, and 6 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS 1 point ahead of MoSSBODS, and 2 ahead of the TAB and Sportsbet