2025 - Round 1 : Some Differences of Opinion
/This week we move from less than a half of a half of a round to a full round of nine games, and we get to see just how differently the models and the bookmakers are viewing the 18 teams at this point in the season.
Those bookmakers see seven of the nine games this week as being won by under three goals, an eighth game being won by just under three-and-a-half goals, and only a single game being won by just over eight goals. The nine-game average is just 15.3 points per game.
The MoS models have very different views about two of the games. Let’s take a look at which.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Contrarianism this week turns up in sixgames, two of them exclusively because of Home Sweet Home, and one exclusively because of Consult the Ladder. In the remaining games we have ENS_Linear joining Home Sweet Home in support of the Swans, MoSSBODS_Marg joining Consult the Ladder in support of the Power, and the MoS twins joining Home Sweet Home in support of the Dees.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, most notably 55 points in the Dogs v Roos clash, 36 points in the Tigers v Blues clash, and 15 points in both the Pies v Power, and Dees v Giants matchups.
MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in seven games this week, and Bookie_3 in three games.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are also five games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 30% points in the Dogs v Roos game, 20% points in the Tigers v Blues game, 18% points in the Pies v Power game, and 16% points in the Dees v Giants game.
MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in six games, MoSHBODS_Prob in four, and Bookie_OE and Bookie_LPSO in three each.
WAGERS
Once again, the newly imposed minimum and maximum estimated edges have served to restrict wagering, this week vetoing three “too good to be true” head-to-head bets on the Dogs and the Tigers, and a similarly hard-to-believe opportunity on the Dogs in the line market.
They have not, however, fully removed all opportunities for making large wages, which is why Investors have a whopping 10.9% of the Line Fund on the Tigers who MoSHBODS thinks are excellent value with 49.5 points start.
The remaining wagers - all 10 of them - are far more sensible in size and, together, represent 12% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 7% of the Line Fund.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The Ready Reckoner this week has a far higher ratio of data to whitespace and reveals that Richmond carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a loss by 50 points or more and a loss of a smaller magnitude represents 13.5% of the Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Geelong carry 4.4% risk, Melbourne 3.6%, Hawthorn 2.3%, West Coast 2%, Port Adelaide 1.4%, and St Kilda 0.9%.
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just over 13c, while a worst case set would snip just under 15c off the price, which would be a terrible way to start a season.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
