2025 - Round 0 : Does Your Model Account for Cyclones?
/As we all watch on and hope that Cyclone Alfred, like the good butler that is its namesake, makes itself similarly scarce and unobtrusive, many football forecasters are presented with the challenge of deciding what, if any, adjustments to make to their forecasts to cater for the possibility that the games in Brisbane and the Gold Coast go ahead but are severely rain-affected.
The bookmakers, of course, are some who face this challenge, but appear to be currently framing markets assuming very much the best. Those markets have the two Queensland teams as about 2 goal favourites, Sydney as narrow favourites, and the Giants v Pies game as a pick ‘em.
The MoS models, weather-blind as they are, are also forecasting as if nothing with happen.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
Contrarianism this week is confined to Consult the Ladder in the Suns v Dons game, although support for the outright or equal favourites in the Swans’ and Giants’ games could not rightly be called strong.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in two games: a 20-point range in the Lions v Cats matchup, and an 11-point range in the Giants v Pies matchup.
No Margin Predictor has Extreme Predictor status in more than two games.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are also two games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges - the same two games that have the double-digit margin prediction ranges. The Lions v Cats game has a 15% point range, and the Giants v Pies game a 12% point range.
MoSHBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in three of the four games, although only significantly in the Giants v Pies match.
WAGERS
As expected, the newly imposed minimum (and maximum) estimated edges have served to restrict head-to-head and line wagering on Away teams, so much so that the only wagers this week are on Home teams.
In total, Investors have 7% of the Head-to-Head Fund on two teams (Brisbane and GWS), and 7% of the Line Fund on those same two teams, meaning that just over 6% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk.
You can see this in the table below where you can also see that Essendon are assessed as having a 7% edge in the head-to-head market - an edge that would have been sufficient to induce a wager last season when the minimum requirement was 5%, but not enough to do likewise this year with the new minimum for Away teams of 10% in the head-to-head market.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The spartan weekly Ready Reckoner reveals that GWS carries the most risk this week in the sense that the difference between a win by 2 points or more and a loss represents 6.7% of the Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Brisbane Lions carry 5.2% risk albeit very notionally you would think at this point.
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 6c, while a worst case set would snip just over 6c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
