2024 - Team Ratings After Round 28
/The Brisbane Lions did just enough to convince MoSSBODS to install them as the final top team for the season, but not quite enough to have MoSHBODS afford them the same honour. Sydney, in contrast, dropped three places to 9th on MoSSBODS, and two places to 9th on MoSHBODS.
Altogether, MoSSBODS reranked six teams and MoSHBODS reranked five teams on the basis of the single, Grand Final result.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 15th finish separated by less than 11 Scoring Shots (which is about 40 points), and on MoSHBODS 1st and 12th are separated by just under 31 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings finishes at +0.995 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.73 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS with a final Top 3 of Lions, Dogs, and Cats, while MoSHBODS has it as Lions, Cats, and Hawks. On defence, MoSSBODS has a final Top 3 of Hawks, Lions, and Dogs, while MoSHBODS has it as Hawks, Dogs, and Lions.
MoSSBODS finishes the season with eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 11. Also, MoSSBODS ends with 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS finishes with 10.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS span a range of 10.4 scoring shots (about 38 points) and defensive ratings a range of 11 scoring shots (about 40 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 34 points and defensive ratings a range of about 41 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (no change), only 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.8, which is up a touch on last week.
And, finally, to MARS, whose only move this week was, fittingly, to move Brisbane Lions into 1st place ahead of Sydney.
It is, in fact, the second year in a row that Brisbane has finished with the top MARS Rating, and this year’s 1,035.1 is 4 Rating Points higher than last year’s.
Sydney, in contrast, have finished 15 Rating Points higher than 2023.
One striking difference about 2024 is the fact that 13 teams have finished with an above-average Rating of 1,000, while only 11 teams did so in 2023.
The range of Ratings is quite similar, however, with 2024 seeing a range just under 92 Rating points and 2023 a range just under 98 Rating points.
This year, however, produced five teams with a Rating over 1,020, while 2023 only produced three (Brisbane Lions, Melbourne, and Collingwood).
MoSHBODS and MARS finish agreeing about the ranking of only 4 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about 7, and MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS about 12 teams.
Looking, finally, at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney ends the season with the widest range of rankings at seven spots, and that there are six other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.
There are also four teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Richmond, Western Bulldogs, and West Coast, and six more teams where the rankings span only a single spot.
