2024 - Round 27 : A New Pairing

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This week sees a regular Preliminary Final matchup in 1st playing 2nd alongside a first-time matchup (since 2000) in 3rd playing 5th.

First has a 70% win rate over second, but also a superior record against all-comers (71% v 57% for second).

Fifth has appeared only four times in a Preliminary Final, and then only against second where its record is 1 and 3. Third has fared excellently against fourth but is at just less than parity with first. Overall it has a 63% win rate in Preliminary Finals.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There is no contrarianism this week amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve a double-digit forecast ranges in both games - 14 points in Swans v Power, and 13 points in Cats v Lions.

No single Predictor has Extreme Predictor status in more than a single game this week.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are double-digit percentage point forecast ranges in both games - 12% points in Swans v Power, and 10% points in Cats v Lions.

No single Predictor has Extreme Predictor status in this form of prediction, either.











WAGERS

Four bets this week, two in the line market and two head-to-head

Both line bets were subject to shenanigans this week, with the Port Adelaide bet ultimately secured at the desired $1.90 price and +20.5 line, but needing to be spread over both bookmakers, and the Geelong -3.5 @ $1.90 TAB price literally disappearing as I attempted to input it. As a result, Investors have 2.2% Geelong -4.5 @ $1.90 rather than 2.7% -3.5.

In total, Investors have at stake just over 5% of the original Line Fund, and just under 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

(Please click on the image at right to access a larger version.)

Investors therefore have the following potential scenarios:

  • 1st Game
    Port Adelaide win: +2.8c
    Port Adelaide draw: +2.2c
    Port Adelaide lose by 1 to 20 points: +1.5c
    Otherwise: -2.5c

  • 2nd Game
    Geelong win by 5 points or more: +1.9c
    Geelong win by 1 to 4 points: -0.8c
    Draw: -1.5c
    Otherwise: -2.2c

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 5c, while a worst case set would snip almost 5c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.