2024 - Team Ratings After Round 26
/The only moves on MoSSBODS this week involved Port Adelaide clambering over Collingwood and Sydney to claim 5th spot on the Leaderboard behind, in order, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, and Geelong. It means that, as far as MoSSBODS is concerned, the remaining four teams in the competition are ranked 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th.
MoSHBODS reranked seven teams across three separate transactions, swapping the Lions into 3rd ahead of the Cats, and the Power into 5th ahead of the Pies, as well as dropping GWS to 11th, allowing Fremantle, St Kilda, and Carlton to each rise one spot.
At the end of it all, the MoS twins agree about the ranking of the Top 8 and Bottom 3 teams, and disagree by a single spot about the ranking of just four teams.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 10th are now separated by only 7 Scoring Shots (which is about 25 points), and on MoSHBODS 3rd and 11th are separated by only just over 20 points.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings stands at +0.9958 and, roughly speaking, each team’s Combined MoSHBODS Rating is about 3.77 times its Combined MoSSBODS Rating.
On the Component Ratings, on offence we find MoSSBODS now with a Top 3 of Lions, Cats, and Dogs, while MoSHBODS has it as Cats, Lions, and Hawks. On defence, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s of Hawks, Dogs, and Saints.
MoSSBODS still has eight teams rated as above average on offence while MoSHBODS has 11. Also, MoSSBODS has 12 teams rated as above average on defence, while MoSHBODS now has 10.
Offensive ratings on MoSSBODS currently span a range of 9.7 scoring shots (about 35 points) and defensive ratings a range of 11 scoring shots (about 40 points). Offensive ratings on MoSHBODS span a range of 34 points and defensive ratings a range of about 41 points.
We can also review the trajectory that each team has followed to arrive at its current MoSSBODS Rating.
On MoSSBODS, 7 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 5 are rated negatively on both (up 1), only 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 1).
The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.77, which is down a touch again on last week, but still quite high. It still means that about 60% of the variability in teams’ MoSSBODS defensive ratings can be explained by the teams’ offensive rating.
PRELIMINARY FINALIST RATINGS
Before we get MARS’ views, let’s first have a look at how MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS rate the four preliminary finalists in an historical context.
According to both Systems, Geelong and Brisbane Lions look far more like a typical preliminary finalist in terms of their ratings than do either Sydney or Port Adelaide.
And, finally, to MARS, which re-ranked no-one this week, meaning that it has the four preliminary finalists ranked 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 7th.
Just under 17 Rating Points separate the four teams that remain in contention for the Flag. By way of comparison, at the end of Week 2 of the Finals in 2023, just under 19 Rating Points separated the four teams still in contention, with Brisbane Lions in 1st in 1,030.8, and GWS in 8th at 1,011.9. Above them and still in contention were Carlton on 1,015.4 and Collingwood at 1,027.
There remain 13 teams rated better-than-average by MARS.
MoSHBODS and MARS agree about the ranking of only 3 teams now, and MoSSBODS and MARS about only 5, while MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about 14 teams.
Looking finally at the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team we find that Sydney still has the widest range of rankings at six spots, and that there are four other teams whose rankings span more than two spots.
There are also still three teams that the Systems unanimously rank: North Melbourne, Richmond, and West Coast.
