2025 - Round 1 Results - Also, Continue As You Mean To Continue
/Tipping winners wasn’t all that hard this week, with eight of the nine early week favourites taking the points. The moderate levels of contrarianism meant that no Tipster did better than eight, but none also did worse than six.
MoSHPlay_Marg was one of the four Tipsters scoring eight from nine and now leads Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins by a single tip.
Four 50-plus points wins made for very challenging margin predicting this round, and ENS_Linear navigated it best of all with a mean average error (MAE) of 37.2 points per game. Next best was Bookie_9’s 37.3 points per game, and worst was MoSSBODS_Marg’s 42.6 points per game, which might be an early reflection of the damage caused from optimising for game totals rather than game margins.
ENS_Linear, by virtue of its strong performance this week, now heads the table, but is only just over 1 point ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg.
Log probability scores were highly positive for the MoS trio this week, mildly positive for Bookie_OE and Bookie_LPSO, and just negative for Bookie_RE.
MoSHBODS_Prob heads the leaderboard, with, MoSHPlay_Prob in 2nd, and MoSSBODS_Prob in 3rd.
WAGERING
Richmond’s Thursday night win virtually assured Investors of a profitable weekend, but three other line bets, one other head-to-head, and a single over/under bet all contributed towards making this a very lucrative round.
Overall, the Combined Portfolio finished up by just over 8c, which makes it now up by 11.6c from a 63% ROI on a 0.2 turn.
