2025 - Round 2 : Let the Shenanigans Begin

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We’ve eight-ninths of a full meal this coming weekend and three of those eight games are currently forecasted to be settled by about a goal or less. Three more have lines between 16.5 and 20.5, leaving just the Power v Tigers, and Lions v Eagles games as potential blowouts.

Let’s see what the models make of the eight this week.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Contrarianism this week turns up in all but the Lions v Eagles game, although Home Sweet Home is the lone contributor in three games, and Consult the Ladder the same in two more,

The two games where there are multiple dissenting voices are Dogs v Pies, where Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder are joined by RSMP_Simple and the MoS twins, and Dons v Crows, where Home Sweet Home is joined, again, by the MoS twins.

RSMP_Weighted and ENS_Linear are the sole non-contrarians (Bookie Knows Best being unable to disagree with itself).

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in five games, most notably 36 points in the Lions v Eagles clash, 25 points in the Roos v Dees clash, and 18 points in the Dogs v Pies matchup.

MoSSBODS_Marg has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, and Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in three games each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges including 19% points in the Dogs v Pies game, 16% points in the Roos v Dees game, and 15% points in the Saints v Cats game.

MoSSBODS_Prob has Extreme Predictor status in all eight games, and Bookie_RE in three.

It’s becoming very clear just how much of an affect optimising MoSSBODS for Game Totals has had on its margin forecasting.

WAGERS

This week, it’s not so much been the newly imposed minimum and maximum estimated edges but the bookmakers themselves who have somewhat curtailed Investor action. Their ceilings have reduced the amounts wagered in the line market for both St Kilda and Brisbane Lions.

We were, at the original offered prices and lines, wanting 3.2% of the Line Fund on the Saints +21.5 @ $1.90 but ultimately had to settle for 2.3% on those terms and another 0.4% @ $1.90 but only +20.5. We were also wanting 3.9% of the Line Fund on the Lions -53.5 @ $1.90 but ultimately had to settle for 3% on those terms and another 0.6% @ $1.90 but with the additional burden of -54.5.

Notwithstanding these impediments, Investors still have 11.5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund at risk from four wagers ranging in size from 1.3% to 6.1% of the Fund, and 11% of the original Line Fund at risk from three wagers ranging in size from 1.6% to 3.6% of the Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Ready Reckoner this week reveals that Brisbane Lions carry the most risk in the sense that the difference between a win by 55 points or more and a loss of any size represents 6.1% of the Combined Portfolio. On the same metric Western Bulldogs carry 5.3% risk, St Kilda 3.4%, Essendon 2.7%, and Richmond 2.4%.

A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 10c, while a worst case set would snip 10c off the price.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.