2025 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders

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A clear feature of 2025 is, I think, going to be the different opinions that MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS will have on occasion now that they’re optimised for two different metrics - game margin MAE for MoSHBODS, and game total MAE for MoSSBODS.

This week, for example, they disagree by more than half a goal in three of the eight games, although their overall means differ by only a point.

The bookmakers, for their part, are very much in agreement, while MoSHBODS differs from them most of all in the Power v Tigers, Roos v Dees, and Dockers v Swans games and MoSSBODS in the Saints v Cats, and the Roos v Dees, and Dockers v Swans games as well.

Opinions about high- and low-scoring teams and games are as follows:

Highest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS and Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v West Coast

  • MoSHBODS: Essendon v Adelaide

Lowest Scoring Game

  • MoSSBODS: St Kilda v Geelong

  • MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v Richmond

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Sydney

Highest Scoring Team

  • All: Brisbane Lions

Lowest Scoring Team

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

This week, two games have an overlay this is 7 points or more, which is roughly what is now required to get over the threshold 10% minimum estimated edge.

Both are unders wagers, and both are for 2.7% of the original Overs/Unders Fund.

PREVIOUS WEEK

Last week was another good one for MoSHBODS as it took overall honours for Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals, leaving the TAB to do the same for Game Margins.

MoSHBODS now has the season-long outright lead on all four metrics.

The leads are as follows:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS 1 point ahead of the TAB, and 5 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 13 points ahead of MoSSBODS, 20 points ahead of Sportsbet, and 21 points ahead of the TAB

  • Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 8 points ahead of the TAB, and 10 points ahead of Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS less than 1 point ahead of MoSSBODS, 12 ahead of Sportsbet. and 15 ahead of the TAB

Wagering and Game-by-Game Performance

There was only one bet last week - an unders bet with the TAB that was successful.

Overall, MoSSBODS was on the right side of the Total 5 times against the TAB, but only 4 against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS managed 6 times against the TAB, and 5 against Sportsbet.

That takes MoSSBODS to 6 from 11 (55%) against the TAB, and 5 from 11 (46%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS to 7 from 11 (64%) against the TAB, and 6 from 11 (55%) against Sportsbet.