The MoS twins are, again, forecasting generally lower scores than the bookmakers this week, with their average coming in about 3 to 4 points lower per game. Last week, as we’ll see, that turned out to be an astute assessment.
Read MoreIn what shapes as a challenging round for home team crowds, the TAB Bookmaker has installed away team favourites in eight of the nine games.
All but two of those favourites are expected to win by 10 points or more, and three of them by more than four goals, which has resulted in an all-game average expected victory margin of just over 21 points per game, which is both the second-highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 9 since 2018.
And, if the current market trends are anything to go by, Round 9 might be even less competitive than these numbers would imply, since the latest average expected margin is about half a point a game higher.
Read MoreA lot more stability in the team rankings this week, as Just seven teams moved places on MoSSBODS this week, and the same number moved places on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing about which teams should be in 1st and 2nd, 10th and 13th, and 15th through 18th.
Read MoreIt was mostly sixes for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with only MoSSBODS_Marg and Home Sweet Home managing more, and Consult The Ladder managing less.
Read MoreMoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 12 points.
For the second time today, MoSHPlay has switched teams with the announcement of the final lists, this time to the Hawks by 1 point.
(That last one didn’t go so well …)
Cats by just 1 point now, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has reconsidered its opinion about the Tigers v Pies clash now that the final teams are in, and has opted for the Pies by a whisker.
MoSHPlay has the Lions by 77 points (and is sticking with Port by 11 points).
MoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor in just two games - the first and last of the round. We’re still waiting for details of the teams in the Lions v Eagles game.
The MoS twins are forecasting generally lower scores than the bookmakers this week, with their average coming in about 3 to 5 points lower overall.
Read MoreThe TAB Bookmaker is forecasting some fairly unattractive scorelines this week, which has brought the all-game average expected victory margin in at just over 22 points per game, which is both the highest for a single round this season, and the highest for a Round 8 since 2017.
Driving that average up is the expected 7-goal victory margin in the Fremantle v North Melbourne game, and the expected 11-goal victory margin in the Brisbane Lions v West Coast game.
Preventing the average from going even higher are the four games that are expected to have victory margins of around two goals or less.
Read MoreJust six teams remained in the same spot on MoSSBODS this week, and only four on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing about which teams should be in 1st, 4th, 8th, and 15th through 18th.
Read MoreOnly five favourites won this week, and that, coupled with the low level of contrarian head-to-head tipping, made for little movement on the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard.
Read MoreSwans by 10 points is MoSHPlay’s final view.
MoSHPlay has it now as Pies by 17 points.
Saints by 4 points and Carlton by 27 points, according to MoSHPlay.
Cats by 25 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay finishes at Tigers by 12 points.
MoSHPlay has gone with all nine favourites, but is the most extreme Predictor in four of the games.
HIgh levels of agreement again this week between the MoS twins and the bookmakers, with the average absolute difference in Totals around 4 to 5 points per game.
Read MoreThe TAB Bookmaker has another broad range of expected margins this week, with a low of 2.5 points and a high of 29.5 points.
All but two of the contests have expected margins under three goals, which has resulted in an all-game average of 14.6 points per game, the lowest this season since Round 3, and the third-lowest for a Round 7 in the history that I have.
Only two games are expected to be won by more than 17 points: Melbourne over Hawthorn, and Carlton over North Melbourne.
Read MoreEight teams moved places MoSSBODS this week, and 10 on MoSHBODS, which left them still agreeing at the top only about Melbourne (1st) and Geelong (2nd), and at the bottom about West Coast (17th) and North Melbourne (18th).
Read MoreEight favourites won this week, and each of the Top 5 Head-to-Head Tipsters scored exactly that, which meant there was no movement at all in that part of that Leaderboard.
The all-Tipster average was 7.1 from 9, dragged down by Home Sweet Home’s paltry score of 2. It is now 9 tips behind the leaders in MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg.
Read MorePies by 10 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has it as Brisbane Lions by 17 points.
Port by 35 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay ends up at Dogs by 18 points, which is the lowest forecasted margin of any of the MoS Margin Predictors.
Here are MoSHPlay’s first thoughts on the nine games in Round 6, making some assumptions about the likely final 23s for each team. MoSHPlay is the extreme Margin Predictor in only one game.
This week the MoS twins are, on average, seeing totals fairly similar to those that the bookmakers are seeing, with differences no larger than about 9 points for any single game.
Read MoreThe TAB Bookmaker has quite the range of expected margins this week, with a low of 1.5 points and a high of 28.5 points.
That’s resulted in an all-game average of 15.6 points per game, which is the second-highest of the season.
Read MoreTen teams moved places MoSSBODS this week, and 14 on MoSHBODS, which left them agreeing at the top only about Melbourne (1st) and Geelong (2nd), and at the bottom about West Coast (17th) and North Melbourne (18th).
Read MoreWith the exception of MoSHPlay_Marg on head-to-head tipping (the form of tipping where genuine talent is least likely to prevail), the MoS trio continue to rank highly on the Tipster Dashboard.
Best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters was MoSSBODS_Marg’s eight from nine, which saw it join MoSHBODS_Marg in first place on the Leaderboard with 31 from 45 (69%), two tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins. The all-Tipster average was 6.8 from 9, despite the fact that only 6 favourites won.
Read MoreMoSHPlay ends at Cats by 17 points.
It’s Essendon by 4 points, according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 11 points.
MoSHPlay moves to Saints by 24 points..
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 11 points.
It’s looking like a very restrained MoSHPlay week, with so far only a single most-extreme prediction, and that by just 3 points.
MoSHPlay is very much in keeping with the mainstream crowd in forecasting a Lions win by 28 points
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