2022 - Round 9 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are, again, forecasting generally lower scores than the bookmakers this week, with their average coming in about 3 to 4 points lower per game. Last week, as we’ll see, that turned out to be an astute assessment.

There is, though, not a lot of difference in the choice of highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS: Hawthorn v Richmond

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Collingwood v Western Bulldogs, and Sydney v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Gold Coast v Fremantle

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Only two wagers this week, both unders, after a third wager, that would have been an overs bet, was declined based on the weather forecast.

The estimated overlays for the two wagers are about 12 and 15 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 8 was an excellent one for MoSSBODS in terms of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) results, and saw it record the lowest MAE for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores. MoSHBODS was best for Game Totals.

That left MoSSBODS still with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins, MoSHBODS best for Home Team Scores and now Game Totals, and the TAB still with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores.

MoSSBODS went 3 and 0 on its under wagers with the TAB, moving it to a 13 and 6 record for the season with them, and 1 and 0 on its unders wager with Sportsbet, moving it to a 2 and 2 record with them.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 7 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 37 from 72 (51%) for the season, and also a 7 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 36 from 72 (50%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded an 8 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 42 from 72 (58%) for the season against them, and a perfect 9 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 37 from 72 (51%) for the season against them.