2022 - Round 6 : A Few Eggs; One Basket

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The TAB Bookmaker has quite the range of expected margins this week, with a low of 1.5 points and a high of 28.5 points.

That’s resulted in an all-game average of 15.6 points per game, which is the second-highest of the season.

As was the case last week, six games are expected to be won by less than 20 points. The three expected to have larger margins are Dogs v Crows, Roos v Cats, and Tigers v Dees.

Once again, as the table at right illustrates, a 15.6 points per game average is somewhat low for a Round 6 in historical terms, but nonetheless higher than we’ve seen since 2018.

To the MoS models, then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

If you crave contrarianism, this week you’re almost entirely confined to Home Sweet Home as a supplier. Outside that source, there’s but a morsel from Consult The Ladder, and another from ENS_Linear.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six games, including a 21-point range in the Port Adelaide v West Coast game, and 17-point ranges in the GWS v St Kilda, and Fremantle v Carlton games. One or other of the MoS twins contributes one end to those larger ranges.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme margin forecasts in five games, and ENS_Linear in four.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are just three games with double-digit percentage point probability estimate ranges, with the largest, 18% points, in the Fremantle v Carlton game.

MoSHBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in five games, and Bookie_RE and Bookie_LPSO in four each.

WAGERS

Again this week it’s just three head-to-head and two line bets spanning three teams. Combined the head-to-head wagers total almost 9% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, largely because of a 5% wager on Port Adelaide, and the line wagers total just over 5.5% of the original Line Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Individually, the line bets range in size from 1.9% to 3.7% of the original Line Fund, and the head-to-head bets from 0.9% to 5% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

As the Ready Reckoner shows, a best-case set of results would see the price of the Combined Portfolio increase by just over 5c, and a worst-case set would see it decrease by just over 6c.

Port Adelaide easily carries the most risk this week, with the difference between a Port win by over 3 goals and a Port loss representing just under a 7c change in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Thereafter, we have Fremantle representing a potential swing of just under 4c, and Gold Coast a swing of just under 1c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.