2022 - Round 6 : Overs/Unders

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This week the MoS twins are, on average, seeing totals fairly similar to those that the bookmakers are seeing, with differences no larger than about 9 points for any single game.

There is, nonetheless, still quite a bit of difference in the choice of highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

  • MoSHBODS, TAB and Sportsbet: Essendon v Collingwood

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS: Port Adelaide v West Coast

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Fremantle v Carlton

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS: Geelong

  • TAB and Sportsbet: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS: West Coast

  • TAB and Sportsbet: North Melbourne

MoSHBODS (if rounded) has Western Bulldogs scoring 100 points this week, while MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers can’t see any team reaching that threshold.

WAGERS

Only two wagers this week, both of them unders.

The estimated overlays are just 6 and 9 points, so MoSSBODS precision (or overestimation of the totals) will be key.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 5 was a replica of Round 4 in terms of the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) results, with MoSSBODS recording the lowest MAE for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Away Team Scores, and Sportsbet doing the same for Game Totals.

That left MoSSBODS with the season-long best MAE for Game Margins and Home Team Scores, and the TAB with the season-long best MAE for Away Team Scores and now Game Totals, sharing the honours for that last metric with Sportsbet.

MoSSBODS went 1 and 2 on its wagers with the TAB, and 1 and 1 on its wagers with Sportsbet, moving it to a 9 and 4 record for the season with the TAB, and a 1 and 1 record with Sportsbet.

Across all games, MoSSBODS recorded a 3 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 23 from 45 (51%) for the season, and a 3 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 22 from 45 (49%) for the season.

MoSHBODS recorded a 4 from 9 result against the TAB, moving it to 24 from 45 (53%) for the season against them, and a 3 from 9 result against Sportsbet, moving it to 19 from 45 (43%) for the season against them.