2022 - Round 6 Results - Gathering MoSMentum
/Eight favourites won this week, and each of the Top 5 Head-to-Head Tipsters scored exactly that, which meant there was no movement at all in that part of that Leaderboard.
The all-Tipster average was 7.1 from 9, dragged down by Home Sweet Home’s paltry score of 2. It is now 9 tips behind the leaders in MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, honours went to MoSHPlay_Marg this week with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 21.6 points per game, ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg’s 22.5 points per game, and MoSSBODS_Marg’s 23.6 points per game. The next-best Predictor was Bookie_3, with a MAE over 2.5 points per game higher.
The MoS trio continue to dominate at the top of the Leaderboard, while RSMP_Simple was the big mover, up two places in 4th.
Log probability scores were all solidly positive again this week, and again moreso for the MoS trio than for the three bookmaker-based Predictors. MoSHBODS_Prob and MoSHPlay_Prob performed slightly better than MoSSBODS_Prob, which left the Leaderboard as MoSHBODS_Prob, MoSHPlay_Prob, and then MoSSBODS_Prob.
By comparing the performances of the MoSHBODS to the MoSHPlay forecasters, we can say that, so far this season, incorporating player information has been detrimental to predicting winners, and beneficial to predicting margins and estimating victory probabilities,
WAGERING
It was yet another good week for Investors, with both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds returning profits, and the Overs/Unders Fund returning a small loss after a late surge from the Swans scuttled that Fund’s second wager.
The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 4.2c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 25.7c, that from a +58.2% ROT on a 0.44 turn. This, surely, must end soon.
