2022 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/This week the MoS twins are seeing lower totals than are the bookmakers for all but a couple of games, which has left their all-game average about 4 to 5 points under the bookmakers’.
Read More2022 - Round 5 : Pause and Reflect
/The TAB Bookmaker sees Round 5 as delivering nine games with an average victory margin of almost 17 points per game, his highest pre-round average this season.
Six games, however, are expected to be won by less than 20 points, with the Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs, and Melbourne v GWS games those that are driving up the average.
Read More2022 - Team Ratings After Round 4
/There was a lot more stability on MoSSBODS this week, but still a fair bit of turbulence on MoSHBODS, as the former re-ranked just nine teams and only two by more than a single spot, and the latter re-ranked 14 teams and six by more than a single spot.
Read More2022 - Round 4 Results - Still Bubbling Along Nicely
/Winners and margins proved a little harder to forecast this week, but the MoS trio still returned mostly pleasing results relative to the bookmakers.
Read More2022 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE 3:45PM SUNDAY
And it’s Carlton by 3 points to end the round for MoSHPlay.
UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has switched to Hawks by 1 point..
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay is now Essendon by only 9 points.
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
Just minor tweaks for the two upcoming games, which leaves MoSHPlay at Dogs by 17 and Dockers by 5.
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
Pies by 27 points. Final answer.
UPDATE 2PM SATURDAY
It’s the Swans by 39 points, according to MoSHPlay..
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay is now, essentially, calling the Cats v Lions game a draw.
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay in the round’s other games at this point, although it is siding with the majority, and against its siblings, in the Suns v Blues game.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Melbourne by 18 points.
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s opening bid on the Thursday game is Melbourne by 21 points.
2022 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders
/On average, the MoS twins are seeing lower totals this week than are the bookmakers, but there is quite some variability on a game-to-game basis.
Read More2022 - Round 4: Oops
/The original blog for Round 4 was accidentally overwritten, so I’ve here reposted the key images.
2022 - Team Ratings After Round 3
/MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS re-ranked the vast majority of teams this week, though both left Melbourne in top spot.
The shuffling just below Melbourne resulted in an identical set of teams in positions 2nd through 5th: Brisbane Lions, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, and St Kilda.
Read More2022 - Round 3 Results - Couldn't Ask For More (or less, depending on the metric)
/For the first time since I started trying to include player information in my forecasts, it seems this year is the one where it’s proven most useful in predicting margins and results, but not to the extent where it’s rendered useless the wagering abilities of the player-agnostic models.
Read More2022 - Round 3 Update
/The long-awaited markets for the West Coast v Fremantle game are now up, which allows us, firstly, to complete the round’s forecasting.
Read More2022 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay Update
/SUNDAY 5:45PM UPDATE
Eagles by 3 points, according to MoSHPlay
SATURDAY 7:30PM UPDATE
Lions by 38 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
SATURDAY 4PM UPDATE
It’s GWS by 15 points, according to MoSHPlay
FRIDAY 7:45PM UPDATE
Port Adelaide by 8 is MoSHPlay’s final bid.
FRIDAY 6:45PM UPDATE
MoSHPlay now at Dees by 26 points.
THURSDAY 7:15PM UPDATE
Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay at this point for the remaining games in the round, though it is the most-extreme Predictor in the Giants v Gold Coast, and Saints v Roos games.
THURSDAY 6:45PM UPDATE
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 3 points.
WEDNESDAY 7PM UPDATE
It’s the Dogs by the tiniest margin, according to MoSHPlay
2022 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders
/We’re still waiting for the bookmakers to show their hands in the West Coast v Fremantle game but, in the eight games we know about, MoS and bookmaker opinions are generally quite similar, with the very notable exception of the GWS v Gold Coast game.
Read More2022 - Round 3 : Far Bolder
/The bookmakers are still yet to post markets for the West Coast v Fremantle derby but, since there’s no way of telling how long it will be until they do so, let’s take a look at what we do know about the eight other games.
Read More2022 - Team Ratings After Round 2
/Some more reshuffling this week, for MoSSBODS mostly mid-table, but for MoSHBODS more comprehensively.
Nonetheless, Melbourne retains top spot and Geelong 2nd under both Systems
Read More2022 - Round 2 Results - A Little Regression
/Two-thirds of the round’s favourites snaffled the four points this week, while only three of the wins were sized six goals or greater.
Read More2022 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay Update
/UPDATE 5:45PM SUNDAY
Dockers by 1 now, according to MoSHPlay..
UPDATE 2:45PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay is staying contrarian on the Tigers v Giants game and finishes at Giants by 9 points..
UPDATE 1PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay thinks it’s deciphered the implications of the Eagles’ changes and has finished at North by 16 points, a 9-point shift from MoSHBODS’ team-based assessment.
UPDATE 7:15PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has landed on Port by 11 points and Melbourne by 21 points.
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay has switched to the Lions and expects them to win by 2 points.
UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY
Pies by 17, according to MoSHPlay.
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay still has the Swans as favourites, but only just.
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay, for now, finds itself as the extreme predictor in the Dons v Lions, Roos v Eagles, and Dockers v Saints games.
UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY
With the final teams announced, MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 10 points
UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s opening bid (after guessing which of the emergencies will make the final 23) is Dogs by 9 points
2022 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins, again, are foreshadowing larger totals than are the bookmakers this week, with the bookmakers’ average over two goals under last week’s recorded 176 points per game, and the MoS twins two to five points higher.
Read More2022 - Round 2 : Settling In
/Last week was fairly encouraging, and this week promises a number of contests that could legitimately go either way.
Read More2022 - Team Ratings After Round 1
/The MoS twins are still parameterised in such a way that they make some of their largest adjustments in the early parts of the season, as evidenced by the Geelong, Gold Coast, Carlton and Fremantle climbs this week, and the matching Essendon, West Coast, and Adelaide falls.
Read More2022 - Round 1 Results - A Bright Enough Start
/As a statistical modeller, you start every season wondering if the improvements you think you’ve made to your models are actually improvements or, instead, just ill-advised renovations to things that were perfectly functional as they were.
At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the changes have, at the very least, not rendered the models useless (as low as a bar as that might be).
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