2022 - Round 1 Results - A Bright Enough Start
/As a statistical modeller, you start every season wondering if the improvements you think you’ve made to your models are actually improvements or, instead, just ill-advised renovations to things that were perfectly functional as they were.
At this point, I think it’s fair to say that the changes have, at the very least, not rendered the models useless (as low as a bar as that might be).
In Head-to-Head Tipping, success for six of the favourites was good news for Bookie Knows Best, who jointly heads the Leaderboard with the RSMP twins, a tip ahead of Consult The Ladder, ENS_Linear, Home Sweet Home, and MoSHBODS_Marg. MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg sit a tip further back.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, honours went to Bookie_9 with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 22.7 points per game, though no Predictor trails by more than 3 goals at this point.
The all-Predictor MAE was a very creditable 23.3 points per game.
Log probability scores were positive for the bookmaker-based Head-to-Head Probability Predictors this week, and negative for the MoS trio, worst of all for MoSSBODS_Prob.
WAGERING
Despite their relatively lowly rankings on the three Leaderboards, the MoS twins nonetheless did enough to eke out a profit for Investors, returning green ink in all three forms of wagering.
The overall round profit for the Combined Portfolio was 2.7c, which moved it to a season-long profit of 2.7c, that from a +29.5% ROT on a 0.09 turn.
