2021 - Round 20 - Update 3

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On the investment front:

  • Sportsbet voided all earlier wagers on Essendon (H2H and Line) and Gold Coast (H2H)

  • The TAB did not void earlier wagers on Gold Coast (Line) nor the unders bet on that same game, so we’re stuck with them. We’d not be interested in the line bet given the new venue.

  • Essendon is attractive again at the new prices on the line and head-to-head markets, so we’ve bets in both of these

  • GWS is attractive at the new prices on the head-to-head market, so we’ve also a bet there

  • We’ve also an unders wager now on the GWS v Port Adelaide game

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2021 - Round 20 : MoSHPlay Update

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SUNDAY 5:30PM UPDATE

After quite the weekend, MoSHPlay finishes with a forecast of Port Adelaide by 10 points

SATURDAY 10:30PM UPDATE

Just an update to show MoSHPlay’s new forecasts after the venue changes.

SATURDAY 12:30PM UPDATE

MoSHPlay has it as Cats by 31 points.

FRIDAY 7PM UPDATE

Saints by 10 now, according to MoSHPlay

THURSDAY 9PM UPDATE

Nothing too outrageous from MoSHPlay so far, with only one of its margin forecasts the most extreme of all the Margin Predictors.

2021 - Team Ratings After Round 19

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With the Dees v Dogs result virtually as expected in terms of scoring shots and hybrid score, the Dogs retained top spot on both Systems this week, although Geelong managed to squeeze past the Dees and take 2nd spot on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order, on MoSSBODS we had the Brisbane Lions leaping into 3rd ahead of Geelong, North Melbourne taking 16th from Hawthorn, and GWS climbing five spots into 9th pushing each of Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, and Gold Coast down a spot. And, on MoSHBODS, GWS climbed three spots into 9th and St Kilda one spot into 10th, pushing Carlton and Fremantle down two spots each into 11th and 12th respectively, while North Melbourne took 16th from Hawthorn.

Those moves have left the two Systems agreeing about 1st, 5th through 9th, and 13th through 18th, and disagreeing by no more than two spots about any team.

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2021 - Round 19 : Who Knows?

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It’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.

In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 18

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More dropped Rating points for the Dogs again this week, but they remain the top-rated team on both Systems as the Dees failed to capitalise, and also dropped points. The Dogs’ lead has been cut to 0.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, however, and 4.0 points on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order there was again quite a bit of movement this week, with 14 teams changing places on MoSSBODS and nine doing the same on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were Richmond and Carlton (both up 3), and Port Adelaide (up 2), as well as Fremantle (down 4) and Collingwood and Adelaide (down 3 each), On MoSHBODS they were Carlton (up 4), Richmond (up 3), Collingwood (down 3), and Fremantle and St Kilda (both down 2).

All those moves have done a lot to align the Systems’ rankings. Currently, they now have the same Top 11 and the same Bottom 4.

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2021 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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Days like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.

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2021 - Team Ratings After Round 17

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Despite dropping Rating points again this week, the Dogs remain the top-rated team on both Systems, although their lead now is only 1.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points on MoSHBODS.

Further down the order there was quite a bit of movement, with a dozen teams changing places on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), Sydney and Essendon (up 2), and Port Adelaide and Richmond (down 3), while on MoSHBODS they were St Kilda (up 4), Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast (up 2), Carlton, GWS, and Adelaide (down 2), and Richmond (down 4).

Currently, both Systems have the same Top 5 and Bottom 1.

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