2021 - Round 18 : Come From Away

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As I write this, there are eight away team favourites across the nine games of the upcoming round, with bookmaker-expected victory margins for those eight teams ranging from 0.5 to 25.5 points, and that for the lone home team favourite coming in at 39.5 points. That yields an all-game average expected margin of 12.7 points per game.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home, of course, has gone contrarian in those eight games with away team favourites, and has been joined by other Head-to-Head Tipsters in the form of Consult The Ladder (once), ENS_Linear (twice), the RSMP twins (twice each), and the MoS twins (four times each). That’s an unusually high level of contrarianism by historical standards.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, the biggest forecast ranges have come in the Crows v Eagles (21 points) and Dockers v Cats (18 points) games, with double-digit ranges in four more contests. Bookie_3 is the most extreme Predictor in seven games, MoSSBODS_Marg in five, and Bookie_9 in three.

And looking finally at the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the big forecast ranges are also in the first and last game of the round where they are about 20% points. In all of the other games, the ranges are much narrower, and no higher than 9% points. Bookie_RE has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, MoSSBODS_Prob in six, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Just two line bets this week, but five head-to-head bets, with one of each kind on Fremantle and Adelaide.

Those two line bets total 3% of the original Fund, and the five head-to-head bets total 6.5% of that original Fund.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Combined, the seven wagers represent 3.7% of the original Combined Portfolio, and a best-case set of results would see the price of that Portfolio increase by 6.7c.

The best-case / worst-case outcomes for each game are:

  • Fremantle: +2.2c (win) / -2.2c (lose by 12+)

  • Richmond: +0.6c (win) / -0.4c (lose)

  • Gold Coast: +0.6c (win) / -0.2c (lose)

  • St Kilda: +0.6c (win) / -0.6c (lose)

  • Adelaide: +2.7c (win) / -2.7c (lose by 9+)

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.