2021 - Round 18 : Overs/Unders

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Days like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.

To the numbers then, where we find the MoS twins uncharacteristically buoyant about likely scoring, although they are, as usual, ignorant about the rain that is forecast to dampen a number of games and, hopefully, a number of crowds.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: North Melbourne v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Melbourne v Hawthorn

  • Bookmakers: GWS v Sydney

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Essendon

  • Bookmakers: Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Hawthorn

WAGERS

Investors have one unders wager and one overs wager this week, and would have had three more overs wagers but for forecasts of rain at the relevant venues (and an assumption that the Roos v Dons game at Docklands will be played with the roof open and rain tumbling)

The estimated overlays for the two wager are both around the minimally acceptable 6 points, and for the likely rain-affected games from about 7 to 16 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 17 saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals.

It’s still the case though that MoSSBODS has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores, Away Team Scores, and Game Totals, and MoSHBODS has the best season-long performance on Game Margins. It’s amazing that the MoS twins are still beating the opening lines this far into the season - and maybe more amazing that it hasn’t translated into wagering success.

MoSSBODS won one and lost one unders wager with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 24 and 24 record with them, and still with a 7 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS finished on the right side of the Totals in 3 games against the TAB and 3 against Sportsbet, leaving it at 76 from 144 (53%) against the TAB, and 73 from 144 (51%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS went 6 from 9 against the TAB, and 5 from 9 against Sportsbet to move to 76 from 144 (53%) against the TAB, and 75 from 144 (52%) against Sportsbet.