2021 - Round 20 : Overs/Unders

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Forecast rain for a number of games has, I think, dampened the scoring expectations of the bookmakers, which has led to the MoS twins recording average expected totals about half a goal higher than those bookmakers.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: St Kilda v Carlton

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Gold Coast v Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Hawthorn v Brisbane Lions

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs (TAB has Sydney as equal-high)

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Adelaide

WAGERS

Investors have just a lone unders wager this week, although they would have had three more overs wagers but for the weather forecasts.

The estimated overlay for the actual wager is just over 6 points, and those for the would-be wagers about 7, 17, and 20 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 19 was a good one for Sportsbet, and saw it record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Game Totals. MoSSBODS recorded the low for Away Team Scores.

That left MoSSBODS still with the best season-long performance on Away Team Scores, but allowed Sportsbet to take the lead on Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Game Totals.

MoSSBODS lost both its unders wagers last week, one with the TAB, and one with Sportsbet. That left it with a pleasingly balanced if unprofitable 25 and 25 record with the TAB, and a 7 and 7 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS finished on the right side of the Totals in 4 games against the TAB and Sportsbet, leaving it at 86 from 162 (53%) against the TAB, and 83 from 162 (51%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS went 3 from 9 against the TAB and Sportsbet to move to 86 from 162 (53%) against the TAB, and 85 from 162 (53%) against Sportsbet.