2021 - Team Ratings After Round 19
/With the Dees v Dogs result virtually as expected in terms of scoring shots and hybrid score, the Dogs retained top spot on both Systems this week, although Geelong managed to squeeze past the Dees and take 2nd spot on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order, on MoSSBODS we had the Brisbane Lions leaping into 3rd ahead of Geelong, North Melbourne taking 16th from Hawthorn, and GWS climbing five spots into 9th pushing each of Carlton, Fremantle, St Kilda, Collingwood, and Gold Coast down a spot. And, on MoSHBODS, GWS climbed three spots into 9th and St Kilda one spot into 10th, pushing Carlton and Fremantle down two spots each into 11th and 12th respectively, while North Melbourne took 16th from Hawthorn.
Those moves have left the two Systems agreeing about 1st, 5th through 9th, and 13th through 18th, and disagreeing by no more than two spots about any team.
The correlation between MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ Combined Ratings still stands at +0.9977, while the Rating gap between 1st and 8th has shrunk marginally to 5.2 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS and grown a little to 19.5 Points on MoSHBODS. Eight teams are now rated as above-average on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS.
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS still have Top 3s of Dogs, Lions, and Cats, while on Defence their shared Top 3s remain as Dees, Cats, and Dogs. MoSSBODS now has only five teams rated as above-average on offence, and 12 teams rated as above-average on defence, while MoSHBODS has six teams rated as above-average on offence (it adding Port Adelaide to MoSSBODS’ list), and the same 12 teams rated as above-average on defence
On MoSSBODS, 6 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 6 are rated negatively on both (up 2), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.701, which is up a fraction on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, in the chart below, we can see how the current crop of teams compares with the Premiers and Runners Up across V/AFL history at the same point in their respective home-and-away seasons. Bear in mind that we’ve lost any teams whose home-and-away season didn’t extend as far as 19 rounds.
We can see from this chart how, amongst the four highest-rated teams, the Lions and Dogs form one group with similarly high offensive ratings and low-to-middling defensive ratings, and the Cats and Dees form another with similarly low offensive ratings and middling-to-high defensive ratings.
And, finally, as always, to MARS.
Here we find the Cats still comfortably 1st on the Leaderboard, and the Lions grabbing 2nd from the Dogs despite both gaining Rating Points this week.
The only other moves were St Kilda taking 9th from Essendon, and Collingwood and Fremantle climbing one spot each as Carlton dropped two spots into 14th.
MARS still has eight teams rated as better-than-average, but only four more now Rated 990 or above.
The Rating gap between first and last stands at 66 Rating Points now, and that between 1st and 8th at 33.3 Rating Points. 1st and 3rd are separated by only 7.5 Rating Points, however, and 9th and 14th by only 10 Rating Points.
The biggest gaps in the Ratings are between 1st and 2nd (7.3 Rating Points), 14th and 15th, (6.9 Rating Points), 6th and 7th (6.4 Rating points), and between 15th and 16th (6.4 Rating Points).
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest difference for West Coast, where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most extreme ranking for all 18 teams.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most extreme ranking for five teams, and MoSHBODS has it for only one.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of no team at all, and MoSHBODS and MARS also about no team at all.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast, again, have the widest range of rankings (seven spots), while 12 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots.
No team, however, is ranked the same by all three Systems.
