2021 - Round 20 : The Triumph of Hope Over Experience

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So far, we have confirmed venues and bookmaker markets for seven of the upcoming Round 20 games, so let’s take a look at them.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

The only source of contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, Home Sweet Home aside, is the MoS twins, who’ve both gone rogue in the Pies v Eagles, and Dockers v Tigers games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, those two games also have the largest forecast ranges this week, with a 26-point range in the Pies v Eagles game, and a 19-point range in the Dockers v Tigers game. There are, though, also double-digit ranges in the five other games, all of which could well lead to another round of big moves on the Leaderboard.

Bookie_3 is the most extreme Predictor in six of the seven games, MoSSBODS_Marg in four, and Bookie_9 in three.

Big forecast ranges are also evident amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors for the Pies and Dockers games, with a 28% point range in the former, and a 21% point range in the latter. Amongst the remaining games, only the Saints v Blues (12% points) and Dons v Swans (11% points) games have double-digit ranges.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in six games, and Bookie_RE in five games.

WAGERS

The last three weeks have done nothing to cow or slow down the MoS twins, with MoSSBODS recommending four line bets for Investors this week, and MoSHBODS hinting strongly at five head-to-head bets.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Those line bets include a season-high 5.2% wager on the Pies, and a mid-size bet on the Dockers. Combined, all four line bets represent just under 9% of the original Line Fund. The head-to-head bets are all far more sensibly sized, and aggregate to only just over 4% of the original Head-to-Head Fund.

Weighted, the nine wagers represent a ludicrous 6.5% of the original Combined Portfolio - and there are still two games yet to be considered by the bet-happy MoS pair. A best-case set of results would, so far, see the price of that Portfolio increase by almost 8c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.