2021 - Round 19 : Who Knows?
/It’s getting increasingly difficult to keep up with the intra-week changes, but this week, at least for now, we do have a full set of matchups and confirmed venues - and it’s only Wednesday night.
In those matches, we have eight home team favourites (where home is more designated than geographical in some cases), which stands in stark contrast to last week where we had only a single home team favourite. Bookmaker-expected victory margins range from 2 to 29 points, with the all-game average coming in at just under 14 points per game.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
There’s very little contrarianism amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with the only examples being Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home in the Crows v Hawks game, and the RSMP and MoS twins in the Dees v Dogs game.
Amongst the Margin Predictors there are some large forecast ranges this week, largely thanks to the MoS twins. We have a 28-point range in the Power v Pies game, a 23-point range in the Swans v Dockers game, an 18-point range in the Lions v Suns game, and 13-point ranges in both the Blues v Roos, and the Eagles v Saints games.
MoSSBODS_Marg is the most extreme Predictor in six games, and Bookie_3 and RSMP_Weighted in three each.
There are also big forecast ranges amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, including 27% points in the Power v Pies game, 20% points in the Swans v Dockers game, 15% points in the Eagles v Saints game, and 14% points in the Blues v Roos game.
MoSSBODS_Prob has the most extreme probability estimates in seven games, and Bookie_LPSO in six games.
The bookmakers are definitely producing very different estimates to the MoS twins about the likely impact of venue switches, and underlying team abilities.
WAGERS
Just a single head-to-head bet this week, but four line bets, some at prices that went up on Tuesday morning, and others at prices eventually posted on Wednesday afternoon.
That lone head-to-head bet is for just over 3% of the original Fund, and the four line bets total 9% of the original Line Fund and include an I-clearly-have-no-recollection-of-recent-weeks 4% wager on the Pies.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Combined, the five head-to-head and line wagers represent 6.4% of the original Combined Portfolio, and a best-case set of results would see the price of that Portfolio increase by 5.5c.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
