Days like today, with Sydney’s lockdown extended for another fortnight and a troubling number of cases emerging in Melbourne, it does feel a bit irrelevant to be continuing to blog here about the football, but, for me, it provides some sense of normalcy. I hope maybe it does the same for some of you too, and that you and your families are doing okay right now. Thanks for sticking around.
Read MoreAs I write this, there are eight away team favourites across the nine games of the upcoming round, with bookmaker-expected victory margins for those eight teams ranging from 0.5 to 25.5 points, and that for the lone home team favourite coming in at 39.5 points. That yields an all-game average expected margin of 12.7 points per game.
Read MoreDespite dropping Rating points again this week, the Dogs remain the top-rated team on both Systems, although their lead now is only 1.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, and 4.9 points on MoSHBODS.
Further down the order there was quite a bit of movement, with a dozen teams changing places on MoSSBODS and on MoSHBODS. The big movers on MoSSBODS were St Kilda (up 3), Sydney and Essendon (up 2), and Port Adelaide and Richmond (down 3), while on MoSHBODS they were St Kilda (up 4), Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast (up 2), Carlton, GWS, and Adelaide (down 2), and Richmond (down 4).
Currently, both Systems have the same Top 5 and Bottom 1.
Read MoreWell, that was carnage.
Read MoreNow that we know the venue for the Lions v Saints game, and the associated markets are up, we have all that we need to finalise the forecasts and the wagers.
Read MoreEagles by 26 according to MoSHPlay.
MoSHPlay has switched to the Pies.
Dogs by 24 now, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay now has the Giants - sorry, GIANTS - by only 13 points
Just the tiniest of adjustments for the Blues v Cats game. Now Cats by 20.
Fremantle by 9 points now, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay is the most extreme margin forecaster in just two games, and the most extreme probability estimator in four games.
Port Adelaide by 3, according to MoSHPlay
We’re still waiting for confirmed venues for the Lions v Saints game, but here’s what we have so far. It shows a fairly high level of agreement between the MoS twins and the bookmakers.
Read MoreAfter another week of staggered announcements about fixturing, here we are on Wednesday morning with only the Lions v Saints game yet to find a home.
The round looks like an interesting one, with all but two of the games forecast to be decided by less than 4 goals, and with six games that the simulations have flagged as particularly important in determining the composition of the ultimate finalists.
Read MoreSome mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.
At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.
Read MoreOverall, the Head-to-Head Tipsters did only a little better this week than they did last week, the all-Tipster average coming in at 4.9 from 9, just one-tenth of a tip higher. There was, however, a greater range of scores, with four Tipsters bagging only 4 from 9, and three Tipsters bagging 6 from 9.
Amongst the Tipsters registering the maximum were MoSSBODS_Marg and MoSHBODS_Marg who, as a result, now have 1st and 2nd places respectively, outroght. MoSHPlay_Marg managed only a 5 from 9 and so fell one tip behind MoSHBODS_Margin.
Read MoreIt’s Friday afternoon, I’m in lockdown, we’re one game into the round, and I can now finalise all the outputs. What a week.
Firstly, here are the updated forecasts. Nothing startling in the Crows v Lions game.
And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS. Adelaide, at home, enjoy a net +2.7 SS VPV on MoSSBODS, and +11.8 points on MoSHBODS.
Here’s the update to wagering, which shows a small wager on Adelaide at $4.20.
Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on wagering in the Adelaide game, since our own score forecasts are virtually identical to the Total on offer.
Just a short update for any of you playing at home, now that we know the venue for the Fremantle v Carlton game.
Firstly, here are the updated forecasts
And, here are the details for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
Here’s the update to wagering (which shows no bets on the Fremantle v Carlton game)
Lastly, here are the score forecasts and totals details. We’ve passed on taking the overs in the Dockers v Blues game because of the weather forecast.
Dogs by 57 points in the final game of the round.
Pies by 4 points now, according to MoSHPlay.
Sydney by 9 points, according to MoSHPlay.
With the late change of Mathieson for Neale, MoSHPlay now has the Lions by only 25.
Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thoughts about the games where we have both initial squads and a venue.
In this most discombobulated of rounds, MoSHPlay currently has the Tigers by 26 in the Thursday night game
We’re still waiting for confirmed venues in two games, but here’s what we have so far.
Read MoreIt’s weeks like this that I’m grateful my career choices didn’t wind up with me involved in fixturing for the AFL.
As I write this, there are still two games whose venue is yet to be finalised and that, as a result, there are no bookmaker markets for. For the purposes of the MoS twins. I’ve assumed that the prevailing scuttlebutt is correct, and therefore that the Crows v Lions game will end up being played at Eureka (aka MARS) Stadium, and the Dockers v Blues game at Kardinia.
Read MoreThere was a lot more movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with 13 teams being re-ranked on each. On MoSSBODS, the biggest movers were Fremantle, Sydney and St Kilda, all up two spots, and GWS and West Coast, both down two spots. On MoSHBODS it was Sydney, up three spots, Fremantle and St Kilda, up two spots each, and Collingwood, GWS, and West Coast, all down two spots.
That left both Systems with identical Top 6s and Bottom 7s.
Read MoreA relatively more difficult round to pick, in which only five of the nine favourites were successful, saw the all-Tipster head-to-head average come in at just 4.8, but with all but Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder scoring five from nine. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg remaining in 1st and now on 87.5 from 126 (69%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg on 86.5 (69%), one clear of RSMP_Weighted on 85.5 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with its Dogs forecast for the win, but now by only 7 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 8 points.
MoSHPlay has revised its estimate for the Pies v Dockers game and now has the Pies winning by 11 points.
Having now had a look at the likely teams for the remainder of the round, MoSHPlay is siding with the twins in every game, though is less confident about the Suns and Dogs upsets.
With the final teams in, Lions by only 2 now, according to MoSHPlay
Lions by 3, according to MoSHPlay
The venue change for the Giants v Hawks game has seen the MoS twins (and the bookmakers) substantially revise their forecasts for that game
Read MoreAll four forecasters have come to roughly the same average Total this week, but have arrived there via different means (if you’ll excuse the stats pun), with the largest differences in the Eagles v Dogs, Roos v Suns, and Power v Swans games.
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2023, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
