2021 - Team Ratings After Round 15
/There was a lot more movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, with 13 teams being re-ranked on each. On MoSSBODS, the biggest movers were Fremantle, Sydney and St Kilda, all up two spots, and GWS and West Coast, both down two spots. On MoSHBODS it was Sydney, up three spots, Fremantle and St Kilda, up two spots each, and Collingwood, GWS, and West Coast, all down two spots.
That left both Systems with identical Top 6s and Bottom 7s.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings still stands at +0.9978, and the Rating gap between 1st and 8th stands at 8.8 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS and 33.7 Points on MoSHBODS. Only six teams are rated as above average on MoSSBODS, and only seven on MoSHBODS.
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s of Dogs, Lions, and Dees (the latter replacing the Cats on both Systems), while on Defence their shared Top 3s are Dogs, Dees, and Lions (with the Dogs and Dees switching places, and the Lions replacing the Cats on both Systems). Both Systems have only six teams rated above average on offence, but nine rated above average on defence.
On MoSSBODS, only 4 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 7 are rated negatively on both (no change), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 5 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 1). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.707, which is up a fraction on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, in the chart below, we can see how the current crop of teams compares with the Premiers and Runners Up across V/AFL history at the same point in their respective home-and-away seasons.
We see that the Western Bulldogs now fare exceptionally well on this comparison.
And, finally, as always, to MARS, which re-ranked 11 teams this week, including the Top 3, leaving it with the Lions in 1st, Dogs in 2nd, and Cats in 3rd.
Only Geelong (down 2), and St Kilda and Hawthorn (up 2 each), moved by more than a single spot.
MARS still has only seven teams rated as better-than-average, but has six more Rated 990 or above.
The Rating gap between first and last stands at almost 68 Rating Points and that between 1st and 8th at just over 30 Rating Points. 1st and 5th, however, are separated by just under 10 Rating Points, and 8th and 14th by just under 11 Rating Points.
The biggest gaps in the Ratings are between 5th and 6th (8.7 Rating Points), 7th and 8th, (8.3 Rating Points), and between 17th and 18th (17.3 Rating Points).
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest differences for Collingwood, and Carlton where Rating System rankings are relatively higher than Ladder position, and for Sydney and West Coast, where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for all but five of the teams.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for only three teams, and MoSHBODS has it for just one.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 14 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of four teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS about the ranking of five teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast, again, have the widest range of rankings (seven spots), while 13 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots, including Gold Coast, North Melbourne, Richmond, and St Kilda, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
