We’re back to a full menu this week and there are quite a few games expected to be close. The TAB bookmaker’s average expected margin is only 12.5 points per game, and there are five games with forecast single-digit victory margins, and three more with under four-goal margins.
Read MoreOnly three teams changed order on MoSSBODS this week, and only two on MoSHBODS this week, and all of them from the bottom third. The only team moving by more than a single spot was Gold Coast, who fell two spots to 15th on MoSSBODS.
Read MoreA much better round for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with five of them tipping the card, and all but Home Sweet Home managing at least four from five. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 82.5 from 117 (71%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSHPlay_Marg on 81.5 (70%), one clear of RSMP_Weighted and on 80.5 (69%).
Read MoreDons by a point, according to MoSHPlay
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 2.5 points
MoSHPlay has broken away from its siblings and tipped the Cats over the Dogs
The MoS twins are, on average, forecasting slightly higher totals than are the bookmakers this week, but they remain determinedly unfamiliar with the concept of rain and its affects on scoring.
Read MoreJust the five games this week, with three of them expected to be won by under two goals, one by about three-and-a-half goals, and one by about five-and-a-half goals.
Read MoreOnly four teams changed order on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, and none of them in the Top 8 for either System.
The big movers were Collingwood, up 5 spots to 10th on MoSSBODS, and up 4 spots to 9th on MoSHBODS, and Sydney, down 3 spots to 14th on MoSSBODS, and down 3 spots to 13th on MoSHBODS. GWS also fell 2 spots on MoSHBODS and into 11th.
Read MoreEven the best of the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week managed to do no better than coin-tossing, and that with the freebie half-tip for the drawn game. At the end of it all, though, the three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 78.5 from 112 (70%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 77.5 (69%), and MoSHPlay_Marg, now one clear of RSMP_Weighted and on 76.5 (68%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is currently tipping the Cats by 3 points
Read MoreThere’s near harmony in the averages this week, and in which teams and games are most likely to be lowest- and highest-scoring, but some disagreement in the views about the level of team and total scores in the individual contests.
Read MoreThis week it’s taken until Tuesday for the last of the head-to-head and line markets to go up, so the bookmaker forecasts you see below are mostly from about 10:15am on Monday, but from 3pm Tuesday for the Port Adelaide v Geelong game.
Where we’ve ended up is that three games are expected to be decided by about a goal or less, one by about two-and-a-half goals, and the remaining three by three-and-a-half to five-and-a-half goals.
Read MoreOnly three teams changed order on MoSSBODS this week - West Coast up 2 into 12th, St Kilda up 1 into 14th, and Collingwood down 3 into 15th - while none at all moved on MoSHBODS.
That left the two Systems still with identical Top 8s and with the Dogs heading the Dees at the top, albeit now by reduced margins. The Dogs are now rated by MoSSBODS as about a 2 Scoring Shot better team than the Dees on a neutral venue, and by MoSHBODS as about a 6 point better team.
Read MoreQuite variable results for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with Home Sweet Home bagging just two from six, and the RSMP twins and Consult The Ladder bagging five from six. The three MoS forecasters still sit atop the Leaderboard, however, with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 76 from 105 (72%), ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg on 75 (71%), and MoSHPlay_Marg, now joined by RSMP_Weighted on 74 (70.5%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor and Head-to-Head Probability Predictor in three games
Read MoreThis week’s truncated round sees both the MoS twins and the bookmakers forecasting higher scores than they did last week, but the twins still a couple of points lower than the bookmakers.
Read MoreRegular readers will know that I usually lock in the bookmaker’s forecasts fairly early in the week, but there was so much uncertainty about the venues for Round 12 that I’ve been forced to lock them in progressively as venues (and, in one case, State and, in another, which is the home team) have been confirmed.
If COVID has taught me nothing else, it’s been the need to remain flexible to changing model inputs.
Read MoreMelbourne closed the gap to the Dogs on both Systems in Round 11, and the Lions also made inroads, but we finished the round with the same Top 6 on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS as we had at the end of Round 10.
Further down, Essendon climbed on both Systems to fill the 7th spots, rising from 11th at the start of the round on MoSSBODS, and 9th on MoSHBODS.
Other multiple spot movers on MoSSBODS were GWS (down 3), West Coast (down 4), and Collingwood (up 2). On MoSHBODS we also had GWS and West Coast (both down 2).
Read MoreHigh scores again for the Head-to-Head Tipsters this week, with all but Home Sweet Home bagging seven from nine. That left the Leaderboard ordering unchanged, with MoSSBODS_Marg still in 1st and now on 72 from 99 (73%), ahead of the two other MoS Tipsters who are both on 71 from 99 (72%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is the most extreme Margin Predictor only in the Suns v Hawks, and Eagles v Dons games
Read MoreWith the Suns v Hawks fixture now moved to the SCG, and the Tigers v Crows game now at Sydney Showground, we need to review the forecasts for those matches.
According to the MoS model, that first change is worth about 1 point to the Suns, and the second worth about 7 to 9 points for the Crows.
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