2021 - Team Ratings After Round 11
/Melbourne closed the gap to the Dogs on both Systems in Round 11, and the Lions also made inroads, but we finished the round with the same Top 6 on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS as we had at the end of Round 10.
Further down, Essendon climbed on both Systems to fill the 7th spots, rising from 11th at the start of the round on MoSSBODS, and 9th on MoSHBODS.
Other multiple spot movers on MoSSBODS were GWS (down 3), West Coast (down 4), and Collingwood (up 2). On MoSHBODS we also had GWS and West Coast (both down 2).
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings now stands at +0.9978, and the Rating gap between 1st and 8th stands at 7.6 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS (down 0.6 Scoring Shots), and 26.4 Points on MoSHBODS (down 2 points).
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS now has a Top 3 of Dogs, Lions, and Dees, while MoSHBODS has Dogs, Lions, and Dons. On Defence MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Dees, Dogs, and Lions, while MoSHBODS’ is Dees, Dogs, and Cats.
On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 7 are rated negatively on both (up 2), 2 are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 4 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (no change). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.704, which is up a little more on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, finally, as always, to MARS, which re-ranked eight teams this week, including elevating Brisbane Lions from 3rd into 1st, and demoting Western Bulldogs from 1st into 3rd.
No other teams moved by more than a single spot.
With GWS dropping over 4 Rating Points this week, MARS now has only eight teams rated as better-than-average, with four more Rated 990 or above.
The Rating gap between first and last now stands at just over 69 Rating Points. By comparison, at the same point last year the range was just 62.5 Rating Points.
The gap between 1st and 8th is just over 24 Rating Points, which equates to roughly 18 points at a neutral venue. Last year at the same point the gap was just over 27 points.
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest differences for Carlton and Collingwood where Rating System rankings are relatively higher than Ladder position, and for Sydney and West Coast (hello there!) where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for a remarkable 13 of the teams.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for four teams, and MoSHBODS has it for only two.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now agree about the ranking of 12 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of five teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS about the ranking of only three teams.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast has the widest range of rankings (seven spots), while 14 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots, including Adelaide, Hawthorn, and North Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
