2021 - Round 15 : So Many to Choose From

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We’re back to a full menu this week and there are quite a few games expected to be close. The TAB bookmaker’s average expected margin is only 12.5 points per game, and there are five games with forecast single-digit victory margins, and three more with under four-goal margins.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

There’s also considerably more contrarian tipping amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, with five selecting the underdog Suns, and the same five choosing the underdog Dogs, including the MoS twins by some considerable margins.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we have double-digit ranges in five of the games, including a 25-point range in that Eagles v Dogs game, and an 18-point margin in the Roos v Suns contest.

Of the 18 extreme forecasts, MoSHBODS_Marg has four, and MoSHBODS_Marg, Bookie_3, and ENS_Linear have three each.

Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, there are four with double-digit percentage point ranges, including both of the games listed above.

Bookie_OE has five of the extreme estimates, and MoSHBODS_Prob, MoSSBODS_Prob, and Bookie_LPSO have four each.

It feels like a round where we might see some unusually large moves on the various Leaderboards.

WAGERS

The MoS twins have the Dogs as about three-goal favourites this week, which has led to the season’s largest single line bet from MoSSBODS of 4.9% of the original Fund. MoSHBODS would, given the chance, have also made a sizeable wager on the Dogs, but are prohibited by the home team only rule.

They also have the Suns as around two-goal favourites, which was seen MoSSBODS splurge, albeit to a lesser extent, on the Suns, and MoSHBODS again restrained by that same rule.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

Altogether, 4% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and 8.2% of the Line Fund is at risk, and the possible outcomes of those wagers are shown in the Ready Reckoner below.

The Dogs carry by far the largest amount of risk, with the difference between best and worst outcomes for them spanning 5.5% of the Combined Portfolio - an amount that could be lost due to a single behind. Next most risk is carried by Carlton (2.2%), then Gold Coast (2.1%), Essendon (0.8%), and St Kilda (0.7%).

Overall, the worst case is a loss of 6.1c for the Combined Portfolio, and best case is a gain of 5.6c.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.