2021 - Round 15 : Overs/Unders

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All four forecasters have come to roughly the same average Total this week, but have arrived there via different means (if you’ll excuse the stats pun), with the largest differences in the Eagles v Dogs, Roos v Suns, and Power v Swans games.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Carlton v Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Collingwood v Fremantle

  • Bookmakers: West Coast v Western Bulldogs

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Carlton

  • Bookmakers: Richmond

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Sydney

  • Bookmakers: St Kilda

WAGERS

Investors have three unders wagers this week, and would have also had one overs wager but for forecasts of rain in Perth on Sunday

The estimated overlays for the three wagers are all around 7 to 8 points, and for the likely rain-affected game about twice that.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 14 saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Totals, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, and Sportsbet do the same for Game Margins.

That left MoSSBODS with the best season-long performance on Away Team Scores and, now, on Game Totals, MoSHBODS with the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores, and Sportsbet with the best season-long performance on Game Margins.

What’s slightly curious is that the Overs/Unders Fund, which uses MoSSBODS for its wagering decisions, has made a loss this year, despite the sterling performance of MoSSBODS versus the bookmakers on Totals forecasting. That’s partly, as we’ll see in a minute, because of MoSSBODS’ relatively strong record in games not wagered on.

MoSSBODS won its sole unders wager with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 21 and 22 record with them, and still with a 4 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

It’s unfortunate that forecast weather and the size of the estimated overlays kept the Overs/Unders Fund otherwise quiet last week, because MoSSBODS went 5 and 0 against the TAB.

MoSHBODS did the same, and both twins went 4 and 1 against Sportsbet. That left MoSSBODS at 65 from 117 (56%) against the TAB, and 62 from 117 (53%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 62 from 117 (53%) against both bookmakers.

Overall, MoSSBODS is 44 from 74 (59%) against the TAB in games that it hasn’t wagered on, and 58 from 108 (54%) against Sportsbet in games that it hasn’t wagered on.