2021 - Round 14 : Overs/Unders

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The MoS twins are, on average, forecasting slightly higher totals than are the bookmakers this week, but they remain determinedly unfamiliar with the concept of rain and its affects on scoring.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: GWS v Carlton

  • Bookmakers: Hawthorn v Essendon

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Gold Coast v Port Adelaide (and Geelong v Western Bulldogs for the TAB)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Brisbane Lions

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: North Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Gold Coast

WAGERS

Investors have just one unders wagers this week, but would have had two more, overs wagers but for forecasts of rain in Geelong on Friday and Sydney on Saturday.

The estimated overlay for the wager is just over 13 points, and for the likely rain-affected games only about 7 to 9 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 13 saw MoSSBODS record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS do the same for Home Team Scores, and the TAB do the same for Game Totals.

It’s still the case though that MoSSBODS has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS on Game Margins, and Sportsbet on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS won one and lost one unders wager with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 20 and 22 record with them, and still with a 4 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS finished on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet bookmakers Totals in 4 of the 7 games. That left MoSSBODS at 60 from 112 (54%) against the TAB, MoSHBODS at 57 from 112 (51%) against the TAB, and both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS at 58 from 112 (52%) against Sportsbet.