2021 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

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There’s near harmony in the averages this week, and in which teams and games are most likely to be lowest- and highest-scoring, but some disagreement in the views about the level of team and total scores in the individual contests.

Looking at the highests and lowests, we have.

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: St Kilda v Adelaide (from 166.5 to 171)

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Melbourne v Collingwood (from 138 to 152.5)

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Sydney (from 94.5 to 97)

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Collingwood (from 55 to 60.5)

WAGERS

Investors have just two under wagers this week, but would have had three accompanying overs wagers but for forecasts of rain in Sydney, Perth, and Bellerive.

The estimated overlays for those two wagers are 7 and 14 points, and for the likely rain-affected games only about 7 or 8 points.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Round 12 saw Sportsbet record the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for Game Margins, Home Team Scores, and Game Totals, and the TAB do the same for Away Team Scores.

Nonetheless, MoSSBODS still has the best season-long performance on Home Team Scores and Away Team Scores, MoSHBODS on Game Margins, and Sportsbet on Game Totals.

MoSSBODS lost its sole unders wager with the TAB last week, leaving it with a 19 and 21 record with them, and still with a 4 and 5 record with Sportsbet.

Overall, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS finished on the right side of the TAB and Sportsbet bookmakers Totals in just 2 of the 6 games. That left MoSSBODS at 56 from 105 (53%) against the TAB, and 54 from 105 (51%) against Sportsbet, and MoSHBODS at 53 from 105 (51%) against the TAB, and 54 from 105 (51%) against Sportsbet.