2021 - Team Ratings After Round 16
/Some mid- and lower-table movement on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, most notably the Swans’ climb of 4 spots into 7th on MoSSBODS and 6th on MoSHBODS, and the Eagles’ dive of 3 spots into 17th on both Systems. On MoSHBODS, GWS’ 3 spot climb into 10th was also notable.
At the end of it all, both Systems still have the same Top 5, despite the Dogs Rating decline on both Systems after an insufficiently dominant performance against the Roos.
The correlation between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Combined Ratings still stands at +0.9964, and the Rating gap between 1st and 8th stands at 7.9 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS and 28.5 Points on MoSHBODS. Only seven teams are rated as above average on MoSSBODS, and seven also on MoSHBODS, albeit a different seven. MoSSBODS includes Fremantle but not Richmond in that set, while MoSHBODS does the opposite.
On the Component Ratings, on Offence MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now have Top 3s of Dogs, Lions, and Cats the latter replacing the Dees on both Systems), while on Defence their shared Top 3s are still Dogs, Dees, and Lions. Both Systems have now only five teams rated above average on offence, but 11 rated above average on defence.
On MoSSBODS, only 4 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 6 are rated negatively on both (down 1), 1 is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 7 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 2). The correlation between the teams’ MoSSBODS offensive and defensive Ratings now stands at +0.671, which is down on last week’s number.
In the animation below, we can see the path that each team has taken to arrive at its current Rating.
And, in the chart below, we can see how the current crop of teams compares with the Premiers and Runners Up across V/AFL history at the same point in their respective home-and-away seasons.
We see that the Western Bulldogs, despite their slight decline this week, still fare exceptionally well when this historical comparison is made.
And, finally, as always, to MARS, which re-ranked 10 teams this week and, like the MoS twins, exclusively from the bottom two-thirds.
Only St Kilda (down 2), and Essendon (up 2), moved by more than a single spot.
With the Swans getting a hefty boost for their demolition of the Eagles, MARS now has eight teams rated as better-than-average, and has six more Rated around 990 or above.
The Rating gap between first and last stands at just under 70 Rating Points and that between 1st and 8th at just over 31 Rating Points. 1st and 4th, however, are separated by just under 10 Rating Points, and 8th and 14th by just over 11 Rating Points.
The biggest gaps in the Ratings are between 5th and 6th (8.6 Rating Points), 14th and 15th, (8.6 Rating Points), and between 17th and 18th (14.3 Rating Points).
Looking across the rankings of all three Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find the highest differences for Collingwood where Rating System rankings are relatively higher than Ladder position, and for West Coast, where Rating System rankings are relatively lower than Ladder position.
MARS continues to provide the most outlying rankings of the three Systems, it having the outright most-extreme ranking for all but four of the teams.
By comparison, MoSSBODS has the outright most-extreme ranking for only four teams, and MoSHBODS has it for just one.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agree about the ranking of 13 teams, MoSSBODS and MARS about the ranking of three teams, and MoSHBODS and MARS about the ranking of three teams, also.
Lastly, if we consider the range of rankings that the three Systems have attached to each team, we find that West Coast, again, have the widest range of rankings (nine spots), while 14 teams have rankings that differ by no more than two spots, including Hawthorn and North Melbourne, for which all three Systems have the same ranking.
