I was wrong: we were destined for another change of lead in the MoS Team Rating Systems, with both moving GWS back into top spot after their win over the Cats this weekend. Our previous leaders, the Cats, were shunted back to 3rd on MoSHBODS and 4th on MoSSBODS.

All up, a fairly difficult round in which to tip winners, but less so a difficult round to forecast margins.

The MoS twins’ opinions are again a little closer to the bookmakers’ this week, but they remain resolutely south in their totals forecasts.

Again, just Thursday’s and Friday’s games to consider so far, for which we have the following:

Not a lot of movement from MoSHPlay away from MoSHBODS after the announcement of the Sydney and Melbourne teams. MoSHPlay is going Swans by 2.

Last week we got to a bookmaker’s average expected margin of 15.2 points per game via eight contests with expected victory margins of roughly three goals or less and one of about five goals. This week we have four games with expected margins under nine points, three more with an expected margin of between roughly two and three goals, and the last two with expected margins around five to five-and-a-half goals - but the average is almost identical at 15.4 points per game.

It’s now three weeks and three different leaders for the MoS twins, though you get the feeling that this week’s leader, Geelong, might be there for a while.

Had you, on Thursday morning, offered me a best of six from nine in head-to-head tipping, a 20ish lowest MAE, and only mildly negative log probability scores for the head-to-head probability predictors, I’d almost certainly have accepted fairly rapidly.

The MoS twins’ opinions are a little closer to the bookmakers’ this week, but remain, for most games, more pessimistic about the prospects for high-scoring games.

The TAB has, again, only framed Total markets for Thursday’s and Friday’s games so far.

Now that the teams have been named, MoSHPlay thinks slightly less of Adelaide’s chances than does MoSHBODS and has installed Geelong as 8 point favourites.

MoS’ best forecasters currently have a 50% head-to-head tipping record, an MAE of just under 37 points per game, and a negative log probability score, so they could all do with a slightly more predictable round this week, but that’s not what the fixture chef has just dolloped on their plate.

GWS’ reign at the top of both MoS Team Rating Systems was very short-lived, and they now find themselves sitting behind Collingwood on MoSSBODS, and behind Collingwood and Geelong on MoSHBODS.

I think it’s in the nature of we humans to focus more on what we’ve narrowly missed than on what we’ve narrowly won, so I’ll try to avoid that bias here and reflect more on the fact that our debutant forecaster, MoSHPlay, is ahead of the bookies on head-to-head tips, probability forecasting, and - at least compared to Bookie_Hcap - on margin prediction.

Anyone who ever tells you they have a 100% error-free program or script that does anything much more than print out “hello world” is certifiably deluded.

Turns out that the MoS twins still aren’t buying the “higher scores are coming” narrative.

Quick update now that the teams have been announced for Thursday night’s game.

The TAB has framed Total markets only for Thursday’s and Friday’s games so far, so there’s not a great deal to talk about.

With the benefit of a few days’ reflection, I think I’d rate my satisfaction with MoS models’ performances in Round 1 at maybe a six or seven out of 10. It was, clearly, a difficult round to predict, but I’d have preferred MoSHPlay to have fared a little better than it did, even after adjusting for the Sparrow/Lewis misadventure.

For only the third time in their history, and for the first time in 12 months, GWS sit atop both MoS Team Rating System rankings after jumping three places on MoSSBODS and four on MoSHBODS to nudge Richmond back into second on both Systems.