2019 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders Update

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The MoS twins’ opinions are again a little closer to the bookmakers’ this week, but they remain resolutely south in their totals forecasts.

This week, the average difference in their totals forecasts is about one goal, largest in the St Kilda v Hawthorn game, and smallest in the Geelong v GWS, and North Melbourne v Adelaide games.

All four forecasters have the Dons v Lions game as the round’s most-likely high-scoring game. MoSSBODS has the Saints v Hawks game as the round’s most-likely low-scoring game, while MoSHBODS has West Coast v Fremantle, and the bookmakers have it jointly as West Coast v Fremantle, and Gold Coast v Carlton.

Fremantle are the round’s most-likely low-scoring team according to all four forecasters, while Essendon and Adelaide are jointly most-likely to be the round’s high-scoring team score according to MoSSBODS has Adelaide alone as the most-likely high scorer, while the two bookmakers have Collingwood in that role.

Again, across all four forecasters, only one forecaster in one game for one team is predicting a team score of 100 points or more.

PERFORMANCE TO DATE

With three full weeks of data, we can now take a look at how the MoS twins have been performing relative to the opening totals from the two bookmakers.

From the Absolute Errors block of the table below we find that, overall, MoSHBODS leads all-comers on game margin mean absolute error (MAE), Home Team Score MAE, Away Team Score MAE, and Total Score MAE. MoSSBODS is 2nd on every metric except Away Team Score MAE where it lies 4th. Both twins benefited significantly from being far more accurate in Round 1.

The Errors section reveals that MoSSBODS and both bookmakers have tended to overstate game margin from the home teams’ perspective, in MoSSBODS’ case by underestimating Away Team scores more than they’ve underestimated Home Team scores, and in the bookmakers’ cases by overestimating Home Team scores more than they’ve overestimated Away Team scores.

MoSHBODS has been virtually unbiased in its estimation of game margins, but it’s achieved this by underestimating Home Team and Away Team scores by about the same amount.

Both MoS twins have tended to overestimate Total Scores, and both bookmakers have tended to underestimate them, but by an even larger amount.

WAGERS

With MoSSBODS still thinking that the bookmakers are underestimating Total Scores, Investors have four wagers this week, all of them unders bets.

The overlays in those four games range from about 7 to 15 points, which represents a slightly lower average overlay than we enjoyed last weekend (for all the good that did).

To finish, here’s MoSSBODS’ performance so far this season. It’s been far more successful when it’s taken on the TAB where it has a 6 and 2 record. Only one of the bets this week are with the TAB.