2019 - Round 4 Results - Team-Based Models Rule Again
/All up, a fairly difficult round in which to tip winners, but less so a difficult round to forecast margins.
Home-Sweet-Home did best amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, bagging 6 from 9 to move it into a share of the lead with MoSHPlay_Marg on 19 from 36 (53%). MoSSBODS_Marg was the only other Tipster to snare 6, which moved it into outright 4th.
The round’s best mean absolute error (MAE), by some considerable margin belonged to MoSSBODS_Marg at 16.8 points per game, ahead of our other purely team-based model, MoSHBODS_Marg on 19.8 points per game. MoSHPlay_Marg did a little over 4 points per game worse drawing on its knowledge about the various players, and who was in, and who was out. MoSSBODS_Marg currently leads the competition by about 4 goals, and MoSHPlay_Marg by over 13 goals.
Probability Scores for the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors were negative for all forecasters except MoSSBODS_Prob and C_Prob. They currently fill the top two spots on the Leaderboard.
WAGERS
St Kilda’s victory late on Sunday afternoon ensured that Investors enjoyed their fourth successive profitable round, as all three of the underlying Funds turned a profit.
In fact, the profit in Round 4 was the highest yet and, at the end of the round, the Combined Portfolio was up by 7.2% on a 19.2% ROI and a 0.38 turn.
