2019 - Round 2 : Home Favourites

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With the benefit of a few days’ reflection, I think I’d rate my satisfaction with MoS models’ performances in Round 1 at maybe a six or seven out of 10. It was, clearly, a difficult round to predict, but I’d have preferred MoSHPlay to have fared a little better than it did, even after adjusting for the Sparrow/Lewis misadventure.

Anyway, to this week then where we find six of the contests expected to be decided by less than three goals, and the remaining three by roughly four or five goals.

That’s produced a nine-game average expected margin of 14.5 points, which is the second-lowest Round 2 average since 2012, bettered only by last year’s 13.3.

Last year’s record low expected margin translated into a record low (also since 2012) actual average margin of 30.8 points per game. Let’s hope we have a similarly close round this week.

So, to the forecasters.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

Home Sweet Home finds itself in the unprecedented position this week of both heading the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard and being on the favourites in eight of the nine contests.

In fact, contrarianism is in relatively short supply this week - perhaps a bit surprising given the expected closeness of so many of the contests - with only the West Coast v GWS game garnering more than two votes for the underdogs. Consult The Ladder has gone underdog most often, tipping the non-favourites in three games.

Amongst the Margin Predictors we see 20-point plus ranges in only the Port Adelaide v Carlton, West Coast v GWS, and the Gold Coast v Fremantle games. The remaining contests all have ranges of between six and 15 points, the amazingly low value of six coming in the North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions game where half of the Predictors have forecasted margins of a point or less.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 13.4 points per game, which is about 0.7 points below last week’s average, and roughly 1.1 points below the TAB Bookmaker's average.

C_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in six of the games, and MoSHBODS_Marg in four.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the final game of the round where the forecasts span around 27% points from about 23% to 49%. There’s also a substantial 21% point range for the Eagles v Giants game, but in that contest the probability estimates sit either side of 50%. C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, and MoSHBODS_Prob in four.

WAGERS

Investors face four head-to-head and four line bets this week, including a stomach-churning 10% head-to-head bet on Port Adelaide at $1.20, the size necessitated by the Head-to-Head Fund’s fixed-return staking strategy, under which the bet size is determined by what’s required to return a fixed 2% of the Fund.

(Whilst it is theoretically possible that the fixed-return staking strategy might call for a larger wager at some point in the season, it would require that MoSHBODS estimate a probability of 91.3% or higher for a $1.15 favourite, of 95.5% or higher for a $1.10 favourite, or of 99.1% or higher for a $1.06 favourite. Given the 5% minimum overlay, no bet could be recommended for any team with a price of $1.05 or less.)

(See this post for details about how the Funds will work this year.)

Two of the Head-to-Head Fund’s other bets are also non-trivial, and comprise 2.5% on Richmond at $1.80, and 3.3% on Geelong at $1.60.

The Line Fund’s largest wager is on Gold Coast on whom it has lavished almost 5% of the Fund taking 28.5 points start and $1.90. All remaining bets by it are in the 2% to 3% range.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

That sizeable Line Fund wager on the Gold Coast, coupled with a modest wager on the same team by the Head-to-Head Fund, means that the Suns v Dockers game carries the highest risk in terms of best- versus worst-case outcomes, as recorded in the Ready Reckoner below.

There’s only slightly less risk in the Port Adelaide v Carlton game, and there only a win by Port Adelaide will be enough to produce a net profit.

In total, almost 7% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across six games, and the maximum upside is almost 10%. It feels a bit early in the season to be getting this brave, but I suppose ignorance last week contributed heavily to the success of the Combined Portfolio. 

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.