2019 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders Update
/The MoS twins’ opinions are a little closer to the bookmakers’ this week, but remain, for most games, more pessimistic about the prospects for high-scoring games.
The only game in which at least one of them foresees a higher total score than the bookmakers is Thursday night’s game, and even there the forecast is only one-and-half points higher. Overall, the twins’ average forecast is about one-and-a-half goals per game lower than the bookmakers’.
Both MoS models and the TAB predict the Pies v Eagles game will be the lowest-scoring of the round, but Easybet predicts the Giants v Tigers game will be. MoSSBODS has the Crows v Cats game as the round’s highest-scoring, MoSHBODS has it as the Dees v Dons game, and the two bookmakers have it as the Hawks v Roos clash.
Gold Coast will provide the round’s lowest team score according to all four forecasters, while the Western Bulldogs or Hawthorn will be the round’s highest team score according to MoSSBODS, Hawthorn alone will be according to MoSHBODS, and the Western Bulldogs alone will be according to the bookmakers.
Across all four forecasters, only one forecaster in one game for one team is predicting a team score of 100 points or more.
WAGERS
Round 1 of MoSSBODS vs Bookmakers finished a heartening 8-1 to MoSSBODS, but Round 2 ended as a 4-4 draw, so it’s hard to say what is the most likely outcome of this week’s six wagers.
Those half-dozen are, naturally, all unders bets.
The overlays in those six games range from about 9 to 18 points, so none of them seem ridiculous value. Whether they’re value at all we’ll know in a few days.
