2019 - Round 4 : A Bit Like Last Week, Only Different

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Last week we got to a bookmaker’s average expected margin of 15.2 points per game via eight contests with expected victory margins of roughly three goals or less and one of about five goals. This week we have four games with expected margins under nine points, three more with an expected margin of between roughly two and three goals, and the last two with expected margins around five to five-and-a-half goals - but the average is almost identical at 15.4 points per game.

That average is the lowest for a Round 4 since 2012 (at least) and the second lowest for any round in 2019, behind only last week’s 15.2 points.

So, another challenging week for the MoS forecasters then.

TIPS AND PREDICTIONS

MoSHPlay_Marg sits atop the Head-to-Head Tipster Leaderboard at present, but we’ll not know its tips until later this week. Consult The Ladder sits in 2nd, however, and has opted for underdogs in three games, the most of any Tipster. Home Sweet Home and MoSSBODS_Marg have selected the underdog in two contests each, while C_Marg has selected it in one.

St Kilda and North Melbourne are the only underdogs that have convinced more than a single Tipster of their prospects.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, we’ve 18- to 22-point ranges in three games: Pies v Dogs, Cats v Giants, and Saints v Hawks. The remaining games all have forecast ranges of between 10 and 12 points. In only three games do those margins span both sides of zero, and in all three of those cases, only just.

The mean expected margin across the nine games and all Margin Predictors is 14.8 points per game, which is about 0.6 points above last week’s average, and roughly the same amount below the TAB Bookmaker's average.

C_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in five of the games (in four of them most enthusiastic about the home team), MoSSBODS_Marg in four, and Bookie_3 in three.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the final game of the round where the forecasts span around 22% points from 29% to 51%. In six other games the range is from about 10 to 14% points, and in one game, West Coast v Fremantle, the range is a tiny 5% points. C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, MoSSBODS_Prob in four contests, Bookie_LPSO and MoSSBODS_Prob in three each.

WAGERS

Activity levels are higher this week, with Investors facing four head-to-head and four line wagers.

The head-to-head bets range in size from 0.9% on St Kilda at $3.20, to 5.3% on Geelong at $1.38, while the line bets range from 0.4% on Gold Coast -6.5 at $1.88, to 3.8% on St Kilda +19.5 also at $1.88.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The attention of both Funds on the Saints has left them carrying by far the greatest risk, with the difference between the worst- and best-possible outcomes spanning over 4c. In the other games, the Dogs, Cats, Dons and Suns all carry between 1.6 and 2c worth of risk.

In total, over 6% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across five games, and the maximum upside is just over 5%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.