2024 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins are expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and by quite some margin in a number of games.
Read More2024 - Round 5 : Return to Calm
/We return to eight-game rounds this week, with seven of the contests currently expected to be decided by between two and four goals, and the eighth by about 9 goals. That could well make for a number of upsets - in fact, the expected number of favourite wins is only 5.8 from 8. The average expected margin is 23.1 points per game and home teams are favourites in all but the last game of the round.
Read More2024 - Round 4 Results - Keepin' the Faith
/Early week favourites fared fantastically this week, with all nine taking the chocolates, albeit by 10 points or fewer in four of the games. Most Head-to-Head Tipsters, therefore, having mostly or entirely avoided contrarianism, registered eight or nine from nine, the obvious exception being Home Sweet Home. Bookie Knows Best remains atop the Leaderboard, now just one ahead of ENS_Linear and the RSMP twins, and two ahead of the MoS trio.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 7.8 from 9, which took the season-long figure to 26.7 from 38 (70%).
Read More2024 - Team Ratings After Round 3
/There’s probably been enough football played now by each of the teams that it’s meaningful to look at how the various MoS Team Rating Systems rate and rank them.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have the same teams in their Top 5s, but none of them in the same position. MoSSBODS has Melbourne 1st, Port Adelaide 2nd, and GWS 3rd, while MoSHBODS has GWS 1st, Melbourne 2nd, and Port Adelaide 3rd.
On both Systems, however, the Ratings are quite compressed at the top. On MoSSBODS, 1st and 13th are separated by only 4.3 Scoring Shots (which is about 13 points), and on MoSHBODS, 1st and 11th are separated by only 14.7 points.
Read More2024 - Round 4 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 4:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Pies by 16 points.
UPDATE 2:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at St Kilda by 1 point.
UPDATE 12NOON SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at GWS by 22 points.
UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay is sticking with the Dogs, but only by 2 points.
UPDATE 3:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Blues by 5 points.
UPDATE 1:00PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 46 points.
UPDATE 7:30PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 24 points.
UPDATE 4:30PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Lions by 31 points.
UPDATE 7:15PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary views on the rest of the round (and slightly amended view on tonight’s game, which is now Dees by 7 points).
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay ends at Dees by 6 points
UPDATE 7PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s initial view is Dees by 5 points
2024 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins are expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and by quite some margin in a number of games.
Read More2024 - Round 4 : The Best Form of Defence ...
/We return to a nine-game fixture this week, with four contests currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, three more by less than 4 goals (give or take half a point), and the other two by about 6 goals and 9 goals. The average expected margin is 19.3 points per game and home teams are favourites in only three of the contests.
Read More2024 - Round 3 Results - A Mere Flesh Wound
/Four early-week favourites won this week, and four lost, which resulted in every Head-to-Head Tipster registering four from eight, leaving Bookie Knows Best on top of the Leaderboard, still just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 4 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 18.8 from 29 (65%).
Read More2024 - Round 3 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 8:15PM SUNDAY
Cats, but only by 5 points, is MoSHPlay’s initial thinking
UPDATE 11PM SATURDAY
Updated MoSHPlay thoughts on the Sunday games
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Saints by 3 points.
UPDATE 6:45PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Fremantle by 5 points.
UPDATE 7:30PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s preliminary thoughts on all but the Monday game.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay’s ends at Lions by 20 points
UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view is Lions by 16 points
2024 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins are expecting higher totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but they do have a mixture of higher and lower figures for individual games.
Read More2024 - Round 3 : Regrouping
/Four Round 3 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, two more by less than 4 goals, and two more by about 6 to 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is about 22.5 points per game. Home teams are favourites in half of the contests.
Read More2024 - Round 2 Results - Not At All Fine
/The bookmakers, on the whole, did an excellent job this week, as 6 of the 8 early-week favourites were victorious, which saw Bookie Knows Best claim top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard, though just one ahead of six other Tipsters.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long figure to 14.8 from 21 (70%).
Read More2024 - Round 2 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Giants by 42 points.
UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Port Adelaide by 9 points.
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 8 points.
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Swans by 30 points.
UPDATE 1:15PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Dockers by 11 points.
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay finishes at Crows by 23 points.
UPDATE 8PM THURSDAY
Here are MoSHPlay’s initial thoughts on the remaining games, conditional on final squads being announced. Not straying far from its source, MoSHBODS, except in the Swans’ game.
UPDATE 7PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay ends at Pies by 13 points
UPDATE 6:45PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay’s preliminary forecast is Pies by 11 points
2024 - Round 2 : Overs/Unders
/It’s another week where all four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the all-game average Total, but where there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read More2024 - Round 2 : Figures
/Five Round 2 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 2-and-a-half goals, two more by less than 4-and-a-half goals, and the eighth (which is all we have this week in the Season of Death By 100 Bye Rounds) by about 7-and-a-half goals. The average expected margin is just under 20 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in only three of the eight contests, which is probably bad news for the ladder-leading Home Sweet Home.
Read More2024 - Round 1 Results - Still Mostly Fine
/I can’t yet exactly say why, but I just have this feeling that there’s something different about the 2024 season.
If nothing else, one of the definitely unusual features is the number of home team winners, of which there were 8 this week, one more than the number of early-week favourites.
In fact, all but Consult The Ladder and MoSHPlay_Marg recorded scores of 7 or 8 from 9, which left the all-Tipster average at 6.9 from 9.
Home Sweet Home currently heads the Leaderboard on 11 from 13 (85%) ahead of Bookie Knows Best, MoSHBODS_Marg, and MoSSBODS_Marg on 10 from 13 (77%).
Read More2024 - Round 1 : MoSHPlay
/UPDATE 6:15PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay has flipped and gone the Lions by 1 point
UPDATE 3:15PM SUNDAY
It’s Port by 46 points, accoriding to MoSHPlay
UPDATE 12:30PM SUNDAY
MoSHPlay ends with it as Dees by 13 pointsU
UPDATE 7:30PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends with it as Suns by 9 points
UPDATE 6:45PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends with at Cats by 2 goals
UPDATE 4PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends with the Giants by 53 points (assuming Haynes and Shiels are the subs)
UPDATE 1PM SATURDAY
MoSHPlay ends at the underdog Hawks by 10 points
UPDATE 7PM FRIDAY
MoSHPlay ends at the Pies by 14 points (subject to confirmation that the subs are Macrae and Wicks)
UPDATE 11:30PM THURSDAY
Here’s MoSHPlay’s current thinking on the remaining games in the round, pending team finalisations.
UPDATE 6:45PM THURSDAY
MoSHPlay finishes by forecasting that the Blues will win by 7 points (subject to Mansell being conformed as the sub for the Tigers)
UPDATE 10:15PM WEDNESDAY
MoSHPlay is a little less confident about the home team’s chance in the Thursday night game (although this might change when the final teams are named) and currently has the Blues winning by only 8 points
2024 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders
/All four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the nine-game average Total, but there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.
Read More2024 - Round 1 : One More Than Zero
/Six Round 1 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, and a seventh by less than 20 points, leaving only two that are expected to be won by 7 goals or more. The average expected margin is just 17.4 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in eight of the nine contests, with Fremantle the only exception and that, of course, is great news for Home Sweet Home, who already finds himself in equal top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard.
Read More2024 - Round 0 Results - A Fine Start
/The bookmakers did a reasonable job of tipping winners this week, missing out only in the Lions v Blues game and even there only by a point.
Home Sweet Home and the MoS trio shared top honours with BKB on Head-to-Head Tipping, whilst Consult The Ladder finished with a startling 0 from 4.
The all-Tipster average for the round was 2.3 from 4, which took the all-season accuracy to just over 58%.
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