2024 - Round 1 : Overs/Unders

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All four forecasters have roughly the same estimate for the nine-game average Total, but there are some sizeable differences at the level of individual games.

With the exception of which game will produce the lowest Total, there’s unanimity on this week’s highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • All: Port Adelaide v West Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoSSBODS: Essendon v Hawthorn

  • MoSHBODS: Melbourne v Western Bulldogs

  • Bookmakers: Geelong v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Port Adelaide

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have three wagers this week, all of them unders, after two overs bets were overlooked due to forecast showers at the relevant venues.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 4 to 11 points, and the wager sizes from 1.3% to 4.9% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared around in Round 0:

  • Game Margins: MoSHBODS

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: TAB and Sportsbet tied

The leads across all four metrics are as follows:

Game Margins: MoSHBODS 18 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 23 points ahead of the TAB

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 6 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 10 points ahead of the TAB

Away Team Scores: Sportsbet 0.5 points ahead of the TAB and 7 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Game Totals: TAB and Sportsbet tied and 8 points ahead of both MoS twins

MoSSBODS had one wagers last week, a single unders wager with the TAB, which was a collect.

It ended then at 1 and 0 with the TAB, and at 0 and 0 with Sportsbet, for an overall 1 and 0 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 1 from 4 against the TAB and 2 from 4 against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS landed 1 from 4 against both bookmakers.