2024 - Round 1 : One More Than Zero
/Six Round 1 contests are currently expected to be decided by less than 3 goals, and a seventh by less than 20 points, leaving only two that are expected to be won by 7 goals or more. The average expected margin is just 17.4 points per game.
Home teams are favourites in eight of the nine contests, with Fremantle the only exception and that, of course, is great news for Home Sweet Home, who already finds himself in equal top spot on the Head-to-Head Tipping Leaderboard.
To the tips, then.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
This week’s underdog support comes from Consult The Ladder in three contests, the MoS twins in two, and Home Sweet Home in a single game.
Amongst the Margin Predictors we’ve double-digit forecast ranges in six of the nine games, including 22 points in the Dockers v Lions game, 18 points in the Dons v Hawks game, 16 points in the Giants v Roos game, and 13 points in the Power v Eagles game.
Bookie_3 has Extreme Predictor status in six games this week, MoSSBODS_Marg in five, and MoSHBODS_Marg in three.
Amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors there are four games with double-digit percentage point forecast ranges: Dockers v Lions (23% points), Dons v Hawks (20% points), Cats v Saints (14% points), and Blues v Tigers (13% points).
Bookie_LPSO and MoSSBODS_Prob have Extreme Predictor status in seven games, and MoSHBODS_Prob in three.
WAGERS
It’s one thing to perform a hopefully objective review of your wagering post-season and notice that a large proportion of your eventual profit ultimately came from the early rounds, and that you might have been too conservative with the estimated edges you were demanding before betting, but it’s another thing entirely when you take those observations, convert them into wagering strategies, and then face the consequences in the following season.
Which is by way of preface to announcing that Investors will have six head-to-head wagers in Round 1 totalling over 18% of the Head-to-Head Fund, and six line wagers totalling just under 25% of the Line Fund.
When I loosened some of the restrictions of the various wagering rules, I thought I’d witness something on an increase in wagering frequency and average size, but nothing quite like this.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
The round’s Ready Reckoner underlines the sheer terror associated with a number of the games, and reveals that Fremantle is carrying the largest risk (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes) this week in that the difference between a Fremantle win and a loss by 15 points or more represents a swing of almost 14c in the value of the Combined Portfolio. Next most risk is carried by Hawthorn (11%), St Kilda (6%), North Melbourne (5.5c), Richmond (5.3c), Sydney (1.5c). and West Coast (1c).
A best case set of results would boost the Combined Portfolio by just under 24c, while a worst case set would snip just under 21c off the price.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS’ and MoSHBODS’ opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.
