2024 - Round 5 : Overs/Unders
/Overall, the MoS twins are expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and by quite some margin in a number of games.
In terms of this week’s highests and lowests, there is agreement about everything except the Lowest Scoring Team:
HIGHEST SCORING GAME
All: Geelong v North Melbourne
LOWEST SCORING GAME
All: Gold Coast v Hawthorn
HIGHEST SCORING TEAM
All: Geelong
LOWEST SCORING TEAM
MoSSBODS: Hawthorn
MoSHBODS: Brisbane Lions
Bookmakers: North Melbourne
WAGERS
Investors have four wagers this week, all of them unders.
The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 5 to 11 points, and the wager sizes from 1.8% to 5.4% accordingly.
PREVIOUS RESULTS
Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared between the MoS twins in Round 4:
Game Margins: MoSSBODS
Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS
Game Totals: MoSSBODS
The only season-long title switching hands this week was the Game Totals title moving from Sportsbet to MoSSBODS. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:
Game Margins: Sportsbet 3 points ahead of the TAB and 10 points ahead of MoSHBODS
Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 3 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 27 points ahead of the TAB
Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 4 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 21 points ahead of the TAB
Game Totals: MoSSBODS 13 points ahead of Sportsbet and 15 points ahead of the TAB
MoSSBODS had five wagers last week, four unders with the TAB that finished 3 and 1, and one overs with the TAB that was a loser.
It ended then at 8 and 6 with the TAB, and at 1 and 1 with Sportsbet, for an overall 9 and 7 record.
Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 4 from 9 against the TAB and against Sportsbet. That took MoSSBODS to 18 from 38 (47%) against the TAB and 20 from 38 (53%) against Sportsbet. MoSHBODS landed 5 from 9 against the TAB and 4 from 9 against Sportsbet, which took it to 17 from 38 (45%) against the TAB and 16 from 38 (42%) against Sportsbet.
