2024 - Round 3 : Overs/Unders

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Overall, the MoS twins are expecting higher totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, but they do have a mixture of higher and lower figures for individual games.

There is, again, a moderate level of agreement about this week’s highests and lowests:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Richmond v Sydney

  • Bookmakers: Western Bulldogs v West Coast

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Fremantle v Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v Collingwood, and Essendon v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: Western Bulldogs

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have three wagers this week, two overs and one under, after a third over was passed due to forecast rain.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 8 to 10.5 points, and the wager sizes from 3.4% to 4.9% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were again shared around in Round 2:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS

  • Away Team Scores: TAB

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The only season-long title switching hands this week was the Game Margin title moving from MoSHBODS to Sportsbet. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 2 points ahead of the TAB and 12 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: TAB 1 point ahead of MoSHBODS and 6 points ahead of Sportsbet

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 2 points ahead of MoSSBODS and 5 points ahead of the TAB

Game Totals: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 11 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had four wagers last week, two unders with the TAB that finished 1 and 1, an overs with the TAB that was a loser, and a lone winning unders with Sportsbet.

It ended then at 3 and 3 with the TAB, and at 1 and 1 with Sportsbet, for an overall 4 and 4 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS landed 4 from 8 against the TAB and against Sportsbet, while MoSHBODS landed 3 from 8 against both bookmakers. That took MoSSBODS to 10 from 21 (48%) against the TAB and 12 from 21 (57%) against Sportsbet, and took MoSHBODS to 8 from 21 (38%) against both bookmakers.