2024 - Round 4 : Overs/Unders

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Overall, the MoS twins are expecting lower totals this weekend than are the bookmakers, and by quite some margin in a number of games.

In terms of this week’s highests and lowests, there is agreement only about the Lowest Scoring Team:

HIGHEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide v Essendon

  • Bookmakers: Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne

LOWEST SCORING GAME

  • MoS twins: Adelaide v Melbourne

  • Bookmakers: Fremantle v Carlton, and Richmond v St Kilda

HIGHEST SCORING TEAM

  • MoS twins: Port Adelaide

  • Bookmakers: Sydney

LOWEST SCORING TEAM

  • All: West Coast

WAGERS

Investors have five wagers this week, four unders and a solitary over.

The estimated overlays for the games where we’ve wagers range from 6 to 17 points, and the wager sizes from 2.2% to 8.6% accordingly.

PREVIOUS RESULTS

Honours for the lowest Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) were shared between Sportsbet and MoSSBODS in Round 3:

  • Game Margins: Sportsbet

  • Home Team Scores: MoSSBODS

  • Away Team Scores: Sportsbet

  • Game Totals: MoSSBODS

The only season-long title switching hands this week was the Home Team Scores title moving from the TAB to MoSHBODS. The leads across all four metrics are now as follows:

Game Margins: Sportsbet 4 points ahead of the TAB and 38 points ahead of MoSHBODS

Home Team Scores: MoSHBODS 8 point aheads of the TAB and 11 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Away Team Scores: MoSHBODS 0.2 points ahead of Sportsbet, 0.7 points ahead of the TAB, and 1.6 points ahead of MoSSBODS

Game Totals: Sportsbet 1 point ahead of the TAB and 9 points ahead of MoSSBODS

MoSSBODS had three wagers last week, two overs with the TAB that finished 1 and 1, and one unders with the TAB that was a loser.

It ended then at 5 and 4 with the TAB, and at 1 and 1 with Sportsbet, for an overall 6 and 5 record.

Across all games, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS landed 4 from 8 against the TAB and against Sportsbet. That took MoSSBODS to 14 from 29 (48%) against the TAB and 16 from 29 (55%) against Sportsbet, and took MoSHBODS to 12 from 29 (41%) against both bookmakers.